Saints Offensive Offense Needs to Show Life Against Jaguars
Another week equalled another abysmal offensive performance by the New Orleans Saints. In a 20-13 loss to the Houston Texans on Sunday, the Saints actually rolled up season-highs of 430 total yards and 341 passing yards. It was their first 400-yard offensive game and the highest passing production since October 20 of 2022 against Arizona.
A series of mindless play-calling and poor execution resulted in the Saints scoring just one field goal on four trips inside Houston's 30 in the fourth quarter. It was the 15th time in the 23-game tenure of head coach Dennis Allen and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael that this team scored 21 points or fewer, including 13 of their last 15 contests.
The 3-3 Saints now drag an albatross of an offense into a pivotal Thursday night home game against the 4-2 Jacksonville Jaguars. New Orleans comes in with the league's 20th ranked offense and 24th in point production. They rank a woeful 28th in red zone percentage, with six offensive turnovers to go up against eight offensive touchdowns.
New Orleans hosts a defending AFC South champion Jacksonville squad that has some defensive issues, but has held four of their last five opponents to 20 points or less. The Jaguars rank just 21st in total defense, but excel in areas that have given New Orleans fits this year (outside of coaching).
Making matters worse for the Saints is the fact that they are dealing with a few key injuries that could deplete their lineup on a short week.
Jaguars Defense
• Yards = 21st (345.7 yards/game)
• Points = 20.3 (15th)
• 15 turnovers (1st)
• vs. Pass = 31st (270.3 yards/game)
• 64.4% completion percentage
• 8 interceptions (2nd)
• 12 sacks/35 QB hits
• vs. Run = 3rd (75.3 yards/game)
• 3.6 per carry (7th)
Oct 15, 2023; Jacksonville Jaguars outside linebacker Josh Allen (41) rushes the passer against the Indianapolis Colts. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports
Jacksonville gives up yardage, but they have an opportunistic defense that's forced at least three turnovers in four of their games. They've also been stout against the run, holding four of six opponents to less than 90 yards on the ground.
The Jaguars employ a base 3-4 scheme full of athletes that fly around the field. Adam Gotsis, Roy Robertson-Harris, and Folorunso Fatukasi aren't household names along the defensive line, but have been highly effective run defenders. Tyler Lacy and Jeremiah Ledbetter supply quality depth up front.
Inside linebackers Foyesade Oluokun and Devin Lloyd are the underrated glue to the Jaguar defense. They are terrific in sideline-to-sideline pursuit, physical in traffic, capable blitzers, and rarely out of position against the run or in coverage. Oluokun leads Jacksonville with 67 tackles, including four for loss, after leading the NFL in tackles last season.
Of Jacksonville's 12 sacks, 11.5 have come from edge rushers Josh Allen (7), Travon Walker (2.5), and K'Lavon Chaisson (2). Allen, who has 20 pressures and a team-high six tackles for loss, is well on his way to the best year he's had since his rookie campaign as a first-round pick in 2019.
Walker (11 pressures, 4 tackles for loss), last year's first overall draft pick, has almost equalled his rookie production and is improved against the run. There's little drop-off in the pass rush when Chaisson, another first rounder, comes into the lineup.
Jacksonville Jaguars safety Andre Cisco (5) hauls in a interception against the Indianapolis Colts. © Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Unio / USA TODAY NETWORK
If opposing quarterbacks are actually given time to throw, they've had success against Jacksonville coverage. The Jaguars have allowed four passers over 270 yards, including three 300-yard games, with four 100-yard receivers and six more over 60 yards. They could be even more vulnerable if starting CB Tyson Campbell can't go on a short week. Campbell (hamstring) has not practiced this week and looks doubtful to play on Thursday.
Sixth-year journeyman CB Darious Williams has found a home in Jacksonville. Williams has 3 interceptions and nine pass breakups, both NFL highs, while allowing less than 53% completion rate in man coverage. Physical CB Tre Herndon hasn't been as reliable, breaking up four passes but allowing nearly 78% completion percentage.
The Jaguars have a pair of playmaking safeties with Andre Cisco and Rayshawn Jenkins. Cisco, in his third season, has outstanding range and a league-high three interceptions. Jenkins (1 interception) is a versatile safety who can play the slot, deep coverage, or in the tackle box.
Saints Offense
• Yards = 20th (312.5 yards/game)
• Points = 18.2 (24th)
• 8 turnovers
• Pass = 15th (216.7 yards/game)
• 19 sacks
• Run = 23rd (95.8 yards/game)
• 3.4 per carry (28th)
Oct 15, 2023; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) attempts a pass as Houston Texans defensive tackle Khalil Davis (94) applies defensive pressure. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Awful game plans, zero ability to make in-game adjustments, clueless play-calling, and poor player execution has plagued the New Orleans offense week after week. Worsening matters is that a group of human turnstiles along the offensive line will likely be without two, perhaps even three, starters on a short week. Even expected starters Trevor Penning, Cesar Ruiz, and Erik McCoy have played extremely poorly this season.
James Hurst was moved from left guard to left tackle last week to replace a benched Penning. Hurst injured an ankle in the first half and looks doubtful to play on a short turnaround, meaning a struggling Penning will likely be back at LT. Right tackle Ryan Ramczyk was knocked out of last week's game with a concussion and is unlikely to clear protocols before Thursday.
Guard Andrus Peat has missed the last two contests with a calf injury. Peat has at least returned to walk throughs this week and might have a shot to play. With OT Landon Young (hip) also probably out, the Saints will likely turn to rookie G/T Nick Saldiveri and activate Cam Erving or Mark Evans II from the practice squad. None have played in a game this season.
Beyond the offensive line issues, TE Juwan Johnson looks to miss his fourth straight game with a calf injury. Veteran RB Jamaal Williams has been activated from injured reserve, however, and might see his first action since Week 2.
Oct 15, 2023; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs with the ball as Houston Texans linebacker Blake Cashman (53) pursues. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY
The Saints have the tenth most rushing attempts in the league, but are just 23rd in production largely because of struggles up front. Williams will help in short yardage, but Alvin Kamara is still the focal point of the offense. Rookie Kendre Miller has also shown impressive flashes, but offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael refuses to use him extensively.
Kamara is one of the most dynamic and versatile playmakers in the league, but Carmichael also often uses him in baffling ways. He has 52 rushes and 23 receptions for 285 scrimmage yards in three games since his return from suspension. Too often, those rushes are in the gut of the defense instead of along the edge. His involvement in the passing game has become very basic with either simple check-downs out of backfield or bubble screens with no blockers in front of him.
The Saints passing attack has relied heavily on wideouts Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Rashid Shaheed. Those three have combined for 79 receptions and 1,041 yards, 73% of the team's receiving yardage.
Oct 13, 2019; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (13) catches a pass against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Olave leads the team with 32 catches for 414 yards, but has failed to make game-changing plays. Thomas has 31 receptions for 329 yards, but has often not been targeted in second halves. Shaheed has pulled in 16 catches for 298 yards, but too often is only targeted on deep throws instead of underneath to utilize his open field speed.
Taysom Hill continues to be a chess piece for the offense, but one that has failed to make any big plays this year. Hill is second on the team with 122 rushing yards and has 11 catches for 65 yards, including a career-best seven receptions last week. He's also a passing threat in some situations, but has yet to be involved in a touchdown. Tight ends Foster Moreau and Jimmy Graham are solid potential targets, but are afterthoughts in Carmichael's game plans.
Derek Carr had his most productive game as a Saint against Houston, completing 32 of 50 attempts for 353 yards. Carr has completed 65% of his throws for 1,299 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions. Those numbers would increase with better protection, but Carr also needs to be more decisive in his decision-making and more accurate with the football.
Best Players Need to Step Up
Oct 15, 2023; New Orleans Saints receiver Chris Olave (12) catches a pass against the Houston Texans. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports
It's hard to imagine the Saints having a lot of success on the ground against Jacksonville's third-ranked run defense with a battered and underachieving offensive line, but they'll need to try. If New Orleans can keep Carr upright, the passing game should have a productive day. This too, feels unlikely based on how the offense has performed through six games.
Pete Carmichael needs to design a game plan with far more imagination. Better spacing for receivers, getting the ball out of Carr's hands quickly, utilizing Kamara in space, and giving his best players a chance to succeed. We've seen none of that so far since Sean Payton left.
The players also have to step up and do their jobs better. We're beginning to see players not giving full effort and not executing assignments with awful body language. If the Saints have the character of a legitimate playoff contender, then Thursday night against the Jaguars is the time to start showing it.
