Saints Running Game Needs a Breakout Performance at Colts
The New Orleans Saints fell to 3-4 after losing at home to the Jacksonville Jaguars last Thursday. After a 10-day layoff, they return to action this Sunday to play at the 3-4 Indianapolis Colts.
New Orleans has continuously shot themselves in the foot with a putrid offense that somehow ranks 17th in total yardage, but 21st in points scored. The Saints rank a lowly 25th on third down conversions, but an even worse 28th in red zone percentage.
They'll take on a Colt defense that ranks 22nd in total yardage and allows 27.3 points per game, ranking 30th. Indianapolis has given up over 35 points in their last two contests, has held only two opponents under 20 points, and is 26th in first downs allowed.
Despite backfield talent, New Orleans has been unable to establish balance in most of their games this season. They'll need to do so to take some pressure off a struggling passing game and beleaguered QB Derek Carr.
Saints Rushing Attack vs. Colts Run Defense
Indianapolis Run Defense
Oct 22, 2023; Cleveland Browns running back Pierre Strong Jr. (20) is stopped by Indianapolis Colts linebacker Zaire Franklin (44) and cornerback Kenny Moore II (23). Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY
The Colts rank 21st against the run, allowing 118.7 yards per game, but 31st with 12 rushing touchdowns surrendered. However, their 3.8 yards per carry average ranks 12th. They've held three opponents under 90 yards on the ground, but have been gashed for over 150 yards rushing in three other games.
Indianapolis doesn't have a 300-Lb. player up front, but their four-man defensive tackle rotation is athletic disruptive. Starters DeForest Buckner and Taven Bryan have combined for seven tackles for loss. Eric Johnson left last week's game against Cleveland with an ankle injury and could be questionable against the Saints. Rookie Adetomiwa Adebawore is a terrific athlete that can play inside or on the edge.
Oct 8, 2023; Indianapolis Colts defensive tackle DeForest Buckner (99) sacks Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17). Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports
At end, Kwity Paye and Samson Ebukam are more pass rushers. They play with good positioning against the run but can be pushed back by powerful blockers. Tyquan Lewis and Dayo Odeyingbo provide outside depth.
Former seventh-round choice Zaire Franklin leads the NFL with 88 tackles and 58 solo stops from his MLB spot. Franklin flows to the ball decisively, as does weakside LB Shaquille Leonard, who has recovered nicely from an injury-plagued campaign in 2022. Undersized E.J. Speed has proven explosive from his strongside spot, recording six tackles for loss.
Safety Julian Blackmon and CB Kenny Moore lead an aggressive secondary in run support. Blackmon and Moore have 11 tackles for loss combined for a defense that swarms to the ball and tackles well in short yardage situations.
New Orleans Rushing Attack
Oct 15, 2023; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs the ball against the Houston Texans. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY
The Saints rank just 22nd in rushing production this season with an average of 98 yards per outing. Their 3.5 per carry comes in at a lowly 28th, and they've been held to under 90 yards on the ground in four games this season.
Much of the reason for those struggles has been because of an ineffective offensive line. Second-year LT Trevor Penning has been benched the last two games because of his struggles. This was even despite injuries to G/T James Hurst and RT Ryan Ramczyk that kept them sidelined last week.
Ramczyk (concussion) should be back, but Hurst (ankle) will be a status worth watching all week. Andrus Peat played LT in place of Hurst/Penning last week, with veteran Max Garcia taking the LG spot. Erik McCoy and Cesar Ruiz have also been inconsistent, at best, as interior blockers.
The focal point of the Saints attack is versatile RB Alvin Kamara. In four games since returning from suspension, Kamara has 261 yards on the ground but just 3.8 per carry. A dynamic all-purpose threat, Kamara is extremely dangerous in space but can also be effective inside between the tackles.
Sep 18, 2023; New Orleans Saints running back Jamaal Williams (21) runs against the Carolina Panthers. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
Seven-year veteran Jamaal Williams was signed this offseason after 1,066 yards and an NFL-high 17 touchdowns with Detroit in 2022. He had just 74 yards on 27 carries (2.7/rush) in two games during Kamara's suspension before going on injured reserve. Williams returned last week, carrying five times for 14 yards. Expect him to be the short yardage back and player that most often spells Kamara going forward.
Rookie third-round choice Kendre Miller has flashed explosive ability, but has been limited by various injuries. Miller has 24 carries for just 73 yards and seven catches for another 71. He definitely adds value, but figures to have limited touches with Kamara and Williams in front of him.
Versatile weapon Taysom Hill is still perhaps the team's most consistent short yardage threat. Hill is second on the team with 140 yards on the ground and adds additional value as a receiver and potential passer.
What to Watch
Dec 16, 2019; New Orleans Saints Taysom Hill (7) runs to open space against the Indianapolis Colts. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
Indianapolis is physical in the middle despite their lack of bulk. Where they surprisingly struggle is on the edge, where physical schemes can push their ends and linebackers back. The Colts are aggressive in pursuit of the ball, but have been vulnerable to misdirection plays and cutback runners.
New Orleans has thrown 105 passes in the last two games. That's not a recipe for success, especially with an offensive line that's been abysmal in pass protection. The line hasn't been much better for the running game, but they need to establish balance for any chance at sustaining drives.
The Saints should be healthier up front after an extra few days since their last game. The offensive line has struggled, but it's still an athletic front that can pull to the edge on off-tackle runs and screens.
Kamara is an outstanding cutback runner with elite vision. The Saints would be wise to (finally) run him on more off-tackle plays and try to open lanes on the backside. Miller's change-of-direction ability might be more effective than Williams' straight ahead style against the Colts.
Using Taysom Hill in the backfield with a back lined up with him should be another effective ploy to pick up rushing yardage. Hill is a bona-fide rushing threat, and the Colts tendency to overpursue could leave them open for big gains on read-option plays.
