Sam Darnold’s Extension Has Initial Parameters Set by Baker Mayfield Deal

Sam Darnold’s resume doppelganger in Tampa Bay has received bank-breaking money, so now we know what to expect next offseason.

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) meet on the field following a game. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The report of Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers agreeing to a 3-year, $165 million dollar extension today was quite the surprise. It had been made clear previously that talks had stalled and were being shelved until the offseason. But from a Seattle Seahawks perspective, the more interesting aspect of it is how it sets the stage for Sam Darnold’s next deal.

Like Looking Into A Mirror, Only…Not

A top pick in the 2018 draft who failed to catch on with the team that took him. A journeyman who bounced around a couple of franchises without doing much to indicate that he was going to turn his career around. A surprise starter with low expectations suddenly turning in a Pro Bowl-caliber season. A mid-level contract. Continued strong play.

Carolina Panthers quarterback Sam Darnold (14) and Panthers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) jog onto the field for warmups prior to the game against the Washington Commanders. | USA TODAY Sports

Am I describing Baker Mayfield or Sam Darnold? The answer is both. The main difference is that Baker is a couple years older and had slightly more success on his initial team. Oh, and Sam Darnold is sitting on back-to-back fourteen win seasons and is the current super bowl champion, both things Mayfield hasn’t even come close to yet. But, it’s very similar.

The Floor Has Been Defined

Keep in mind that Baker got this $55 million a year extension after the worst season of his Buccaneer career (injuries played a significant role, duly noted), missing the postseason and the Pro Bowl. Yes, he’s reached individual heights (41 touchdown passes in 2024) that Darnold hasn’t, but Sam has also performed well across two different organizations.

NBC Sports host Maria Taylor interviews Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14) as he celebrates with the Vince Lombardi Trophy. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

If Sam has even a decent season in 2026, that $55 million a year number will probably be the minimum on his extension. Those gaudy win totals and deep postseason success, even if he doesn’t manage to build on that this year, will do a lot of heavy lifting. And given that Mayfield is getting paid now, whereas Darnold will after the cap jumps, I suspect it’ll be more.

The Ceiling Is Dizzying

But the real intrigue is what happens if Darnold does it again. By it, I mean banking another high volume of wins and a deep postseason push, with numbers comparable to his 2024 breakout in Minnesota. And if he wins a second super bowl…it really feels like he could ask for just about anything. At that point, whether he’s actually on the level of the elite quarterbacks is irrelevant.

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14) drops back to pass against the New England Patriots. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Remember, Mayfield isn’t really considered a top ten quarterback by anyone at the moment. Perhaps it’s unfair when he’s being judged off of what is clearly not his best work, but as someone who read a lot of quarterback rankings this offseason, almost all of them had Darnold ahead of Mayfield. And it’s not like they had Darnold all that high either.

Back Up The Brinks Truck

So to all Seahawks fans, I say make your peace with where this is likely headed. If we are blessed with a strong Darnold season and a successful team overall, $57 million is probably the floor, and $60 million is more likely. You can argue that Darnold isn’t as good as the Josh Allen’s and Patrick Mahomes’s of the world all you want, but that’s where this is headed.

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14) warms up prior to a game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Unless Darnold decides he’s not interested in getting paid that kind of money, I have to believe he’ll get it. Now whether he’ll get it from this team is a bit of a different question. Schneider may object to the idea of giving a non-elite quarterback money at the top of the market, but that doesn’t mean he won’t do it. Just one more offseason subplot to follow.

— Enjoy free coverage of the Super Bowl champions from Seattle Seahawks On SI —

Sign Up For the Seahawks Daily Digest - OnSI’s Free Seattle Seahawks Newsletter