What Seahawks GM John Schneider Could Net in a First-Round Trade Back

Many believe the Seahawks will end up trading back at 32, picking up additional picks in the process, but what does the last first round pick in this draft fetch you?

Seattle Seahawks general manager John Schneider speaks at the NFL Scouting Combine. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

When it comes to trades in the NFL, the free market reigns supreme. We can spend all the time we want talking about the ‘objective’ or ‘mathematical’ value of a player or draft picks, but at the end of the day, things are worth what someone is willing to pay for them. If the Saints think Ricky Williams is worth all their picks, then charts aren’t going to convince them otherwise.

But it’s the best we can do right now, so while we’re waiting for the draft to get here (just two weeks away!), let’s take a look at what the charts have to say about the Seahawks’ best pick. #32 overall, at the very back end of the first round, it’s not necessarily the most valuable piece in the world, but there may be a team out there that covets it on draft day.

Jimmy Johnson

Miami Hurricanes former player Jimmy Johnson on the field prior to the game against the Indiana Hoosiers. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The Jimmy Johnson model, generally considered to be the classic example of assigning point values to draft picks, scales from 3,000 points (#1 overall) all the way down to 1 point (for picks #227 and lower. Here, the #32 overall is valued at 590 points, just under half the value of the #12 overall pick, and just barely over double the value of #61 overall.

Trade down three spots to the Titans at #35? That’s a 30 point value, equivalent to about an early-mid 5th round pick. A couple more spots to the Browns at #39? Cleveland owes us 80 points of value, exactly equal to their early 4th round pick at #107. A bolder trade down to the Vikings at #49. That’s good enough for 180 points and their 3rd rounder at #82. Not bad.

Team	Second Round Pick	Point Gap	Likely Extra Pick
Titans	No. 35	14	5th Round
Browns	No. 39	31	4th Round

Rich Hill

Seattle Seahawks general manager John Schneider celebrates with the Vince Lombardi trophy on the podium. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Some believe the Rich Hill model more accurately captures the way teams value draft picks in the modern day. Scaled from 1,000 points at the top to 1 point for picks #245 and on, Hill assigns Seattle’s top pick at 184 points. That’s about half of the value of #9 overall, and double the value of #59. A little bit differently scaled, but same basic idea.

The Tennessee trade down to #35 creates a 14 point gap, which is exactly filled by Tennessee’s early 5th at #142. Swinging down to the Cleveland pick is now 31 points, identical to the #107 pick, same as with Jimmy. Atlanta at #48 is a viable trade partner, as that swap would create a 63 point gap, netting Atlanta’s #79 pick in the third and #215 in the sixth with 2 points to spare.

Either way, the results are similar. The Seahawks can add a fifth rounder by giving up a few spots, an early fourth if they’re willing to give up a bit more ground, and might be able to grab a third or more if they go down to the middle second. But, when draft day is actually here, will anyone be willing to do that? Or maybe even give up more? That we don’t know.

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