What the numbers say about how best to handle Drake Maye

Last week, I wrote an article discussing the dynamics of Matthew Stafford’s likely MVP season, going over his performance when pressured versus not pressured and blitzed versus not blitzed. The contrast there was very stark, with Stafford performing far worse when pressured (which goes for most quarterbacks) and far better when blitzed.

Let’s do the same for Drake Maye, who many believe will finish as the MVP runner up, because the splits are a little different here. Also different is the context, as Stafford had to maneuver a much more difficult schedule and play far more good defenses. Nevertheless, this is a key point to understand for the Seahawks, as their defense has struggled to generate pressure recently.

Starting with the regular season, Maye was pressured significantly more than Stafford, feeling the heat on nearly 38% of his dropbacks compared to 32% for Stafford. There are a few different reasons for this, one being his far inferior offensive line and another being holding onto the ball for longer. However, Maye largely makes up for this with how he handles pressure.

Maye’s performance does take a hit when under duress, including a completion percentage that drops over 20%, but his ratio of big time throws to turnover worthy plays is more or less the same, and his average depth of target jumps from 8.6 yards all the way up to 12. His rating when pressured is 90.4, far worse than his clean rating of 123, but still decent.

And it’s not entirely clear if you’re better off blitzing him or rushing four. Maye’s QB rating when blitzed is elite at 116, but his not-blitzed rating is basically identical, 112.1. He produces more turnover worthy plays when you rush four, but also hits more big time throws. Unlike Stafford, who had a definite split, this is relatively unclear.

However, there is a clear commonality between Maye and Stafford in that both have seen drastically different results in the postseason. Maye has been pressured at a much lower rate through three playoff games, under 33%, but bizarrely enough has been a disaster when not pressured, completing under 56% of his passes and scoring a rating of 76.4.

Maye hasn't been the same in the playoffs so far. — Los Angeles Chargers linebacker Odafe Oweh (98) and Los Angeles Chargers defensive tackle Justin Eboigbe (92) sack New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10). | Eric Canha-Imagn Images

His performance under pressure has been a contradiction, with a very high QB rating of 117.9 but four turnover worthy plays. His fumbling has been put under a microscope during the playoffs, as he put it on the ground six times in the first two games before cleaning it up in the AFC Championship game.

He’s remained good when blitzed (114.2 rating) but has shifted into disaster territory when not blitzed (71.9). It’s pretty clear you’re better off rushing four and trying to win your battles in the trenches, but again, the Seahawks have struggled in this area for about two months worth of football now. More importantly, what’s really going on here with Maye?

On the surface, a lot of this doesn’t make a ton of sense. Maye was one of the best QBs in football during the regular season, both when pressured and when not pressured, both when blitzed and not blitzed, and now he’s suddenly unplayable in the postseason when given a clean pocket and impossibly elite when pressured as long as he doesn’t fumble?

The answer, I suspect, simply lies within the level of competency in the defenses Maye has gotten to play this season. The subject of New England’s easy schedule in 2025 has been covered a lot in recent times, but when you spotlight the defenses that they had to play in particular, it becomes clear how easy a path Maye had this season.

The Patriots did not play a single defense that ranked in the top eleven in points allowed, and played one elite defense (Cleveland) and one good defense (New Orleans) in terms of EPA. If you take the average of the points per game ranking of NE opponents this season, it comes out to 21.3, and EPA ranking comes out to 20.3. It was, quite simply, a feeding frenzy.

In the playoffs? The Patriots have run into the Chargers (9th in PPG and 6th in EPA), Texans (2nd and 2nd), and Broncos (3rd and 8th). Suddenly, the Patriots can barely score, Maye has been a mess, and the few points they do manage often come at the behest of their defense. It really does seem like it’s that simple.

Pressured, not pressured, blitzed, not blitzed, however you want to quantify it, Maye spent the season playing against substandard defenses. And through three postseason games, it’s hard to argue against the belief that his elite results are partially owed to that schedule. Even successful pressure is going to be less effective when administered by a bad defense.

The ultimate test for Drake awaits next week, where he takes on the top defense in the league by points and EPA. Based on the trend of his three postseason games so far, it will be hard for him to break through.

It's up to DeMarcus Lawrence to get to Maye to save the Seahawks the trouble of blitzing him. — San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) is strip sacked by Seattle Seahawks defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence (0). | Kevin Ng-Imagn Images

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