Seattle Seahawks defense must improve in this one key area to beat the Rams

When it comes to Seattle’s defense, game one versus game two against the LA Rams in the 2025 season have virtually nothing in common. 19 versus 37 points. 249 versus 581 yards. 5 versus 6.6 yards per play. 22:11 versus 40:33 time of possession. 2-11 versus 8-20 on third down. -0.194 versus 0.202 EPA per play.

Game two did include one overtime drive, but even if you exclude that the numbers are extremely lopsided. It’s comical that the Seahawks lost the first game and won the second. Game one is in the conversation for worst offensive game of Sean McVay’s Rams career, game two is in the conversation for worst defensive game of Mike Macdonald’s Seahawks career.

However, there is one unifying area between these two games for Seattle’s defense. One area where they were more or less equally inept and unproductive. And that area is the pass rush. Matthew Stafford was sacked zero times in both games, and rarely pressured, despite the Seahawks having the eighth most sacks and fourth highest pressure rate in football.

According to ESPN, the Seahawks hit Stafford three times on 28 dropbacks in the first game, and four times on 51 dropbacks in the second. Pro Football Focus has 11 total pressures (3 hits + 8 hurries) in the first game and 22 total pressures in the second (4 hits + 18 hurries). Pro Football Reference said eight in the first game and five in the second.

Whichever source you choose to trust, none of this paints a good picture. Stafford is generally very good at avoiding pressure (PFF has him at 201 pressures on the season, or about 11.8 per game, and his 23 sacks taken is less than 1.4 per game), but Seattle’s defense must be held to a higher standard. They are, after all, the top defense by most metrics in the entire league.

And this issue is not exclusive to games against the Rams. Despite Seattle’s dominant defense in almost all of their recent games, their pass rush has leveled off. I do a weekly series of videos on pass rush production based on PFR, and Seattle has gone from averaging 12 pressures a game in September, to 15.3 in October, to 13.4 in November, to just 6.4 in December/January.

There was a lot of pressure in the divisional round game against the 49ers, but a lot of that pressure came from Brock Purdy holding onto the ball for long periods of time and scrambling around. I doubt Stafford will do either of these things on Sunday. While Seattle has proven they can shut down the Rams offense without getting pressure, it’d be much easier with some.

Need more of this from D-Law. — San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) is strip sacked by Seattle Seahawks defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence (0). | Kevin Ng-Imagn Images

When not pressured, Stafford’s QB rating this season is 119.8, which would lead the NFL. When pressured, it drops all the way to 83.4, worse than the rating of Geno Smith, and just barely above Jameis Winston’s. And that was just the regular season. Let’s check in on his status in the postseason.

Against the Panthers, Stafford posted a 126.2 rating when clean, but 21.3 when pressured. The Bears game was something of an anomaly, as Stafford was just plain bad for most of that one, but he did squeeze out a 69.7 rating when clean and 60 when pressured. Also notable to me is that he got pressured 14 times in each game, despite playing two lackluster pass rushes.

Maybe it’s old age, maybe it’s the finger injury, maybe it’s a small sample size, but it seems like Stafford is more susceptible to pressure and the negative effects of it right now. A 38.1 rating when feeling the heat is pretty definitive. Buried within the pressure stats is one more fascinating development over the postseason, which is Stafford’s ability against the blitz.

Stafford was brilliant against the blitz in the regular season, posting a 121.2 rating on 218 dropbacks. He slipped to merely ‘good’ when not blitzed, a rating of 99, which would have ranked 12th in the NFL for the season. In the postseason? Not so much. 69.8 rating when blitzed compared to 87.2 otherwise. Not his best work either way, but still a big departure.

Again, small sample sizes abound, particularly when one of his two playoff games so far was also his bad showing in Chicago. But let’s also consider how lucky Stafford has been in those two games, especially the Bears game. PFF has Stafford on six turnover worthy plays so far in these playoffs. He’s turned it over exactly once. Four of those plays have come when blitzed.

I wrote an article after Seattle’s week sixteen win against Los Angeles about the odd defensive gameplan, which featured an ultra-high blitz rate in the first three quarters. Stafford destroyed the Seahawks defense in those three quarters, and then immediately posted three straight three-and-outs and five straight drives without points in the fourth, when the blitzing stopped.

So it would be rather odd if I were to now advocate for blitzing Stafford, and I’m not saying I am. But the last two games have been so radically different for him, it’s hard to not consider it. He’s been sacked four times on 36 blitzed dropbacks after eating just eleven on 218 in the regular season. The Bears blitzed nearly 40% of the time on Sunday, and were largely rewarded for it.

I don’t know what the answer is, but ultimately what matters is that Mike Macdonald knows. If the Carolina Panthers, who have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL, can get to Stafford, then I’m quite positive this Seattle team needs to show they can as well. Given his recent play, the right formula here will spell many turnover chances for the Seahawks, and probably a win.

Hopefully Big Cat has something for Stafford as well. — San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) is sacked by Seattle Seahawks defensive end Leonard Williams (99). | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

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