Why Klint Kubiak has more value as Seahawks OC than as Raiders' head coach

Klint Kubiak has received a lot of (deseriving) praise for his success with the Seattle Seahawks offense this season, so naturally, he has been interviewing with several teams with open positions for head coach. According to prediction market Kalshi, Kubiak has emerged as the favorite to fill that position for the Las Vegas Raiders, with an estimated 68 percent chance of taking the job next year.

With all signs pointing toward almost certainty that the Raiders will use their number-one overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft on Heisman Trophy-winning national champion Fernando Mendoza to be their next quarterback, the implication here is that the Raiders are more likely than not to have both a rookie quarterback and a first-time head coach leading the next iteration of their team.

I believe there is good reason to be dubious of this impending move, and evidence pointing toward Klint Kubiak being a better fit as Seahawks OC than Raiders HC. Here is a look at all of the teams to have both a rookie QB and first-time offensive-minded HC, since 2000:

Team	Head Coach	Rookie QB	Previous Record	First Year Record	Head Coach Years w/ Team	QB Years as Starter	Peak Success
2021 Houston Texans	David Culley	Davis Mills	4-12	4-13	1	2	No playoff wins
2019 Arizona Cardinals	Kliff Kingsbury	Kyler Murray	3-13	5-10	4	7+	No playoff wins
2016 Philadelphia Eagles	Doug Pederson	Carson Wentz	7-9	7-9	5	6	Super Bowl win
2013 Buffalo Bills	Doug Marrone	E.J. Manuel	6-10	6-10	2	1	No playoff wins
2012 Miami Dolphins	Joe Philbin	Ryan Tannehill	6-10	7-9	4	7+	No playoff wins

There are only five instances in the 21st century of an NFL franchise opting to have a first-time head coach run the offense with a rookie quarterback. All of them are relatively recent, having occurred in the last fifteen years.

The most unsuccessful attempt was the most recent, with the Texans firing Culley after one season and moving on from the QB they drafted after two seasons. The most successful example was the Eagles with Pederson and Wentz, though it's worth noting that their playoff run was led by the backup QB, Foles, and a great defense.

Four of the five teams to attempt this feat moved on from their new head coach after four years or fewer, their quarterback never lived up to the hype, and they failed to win a single playoff game with the two of them together. History does not suggest this is a favorable path to take.

Meanwhile, Klint Kubiak has bounced around from team to team as a coordinator on the offensive side of the ball for years. He was the offensive coordinator for the Vikings in 2021, the passing game coordinator for the Broncos in 2022, the passing game coordinator for the 49ers in 2023, the offensive coordinator for the Saints in 2024, and now the offensive coordinator for the Seahawks in 2025.

Now that Kubiak has finally found some high-level success with the Seahawks in his first year, with one of the most well-rounded rosters in the NFL and his hand-picked offensive line coach, it seems like a reach to all of a sudden consider him qualified to be a head coach, which is a very different and more-demanding job.

Consider Mike Macdonald. Yes, his style of defense has turned the Seahawks into a great defensive team, but the reason they are the best team in the NFL this year and about to play in the Super Bowl is everything else he's done as head coach: establish a culture, integrate a core philosophy, delegate responsibilities, lead a building full of egos, etc.

I believe that the Las Vegas Raiders hiring Klint Kubiak to be their head coach in 2026 is neither best for the Raiders nor best for Klint Kubiak's career. Kubiak would be under a ton of pressure to turn Mendoza into a star quarterback, regardless of whether his skill set matches Kubiak's vision for the offense. He could easily be fired as a scapegoat in Mendoza's early years if he doesn't take the Raiders from the very bottom of the league to winning playoff games.

On the flip side, Kubiak could spend a second year or more in Seattle to gain experience working with the same franchise for consecutive seasons, improving his readiness to be a head coach and waiting for the right opportunity to come along for the next step in his career, rather than rushing a promotion. If you ask me, the Raiders would be better off hiring a head coach with more experience that can delegate easily-filled coordinator roles to provide a more stable foundation for Mendoza, and Klint Kubiak would set up his long-term coaching career for more stability by staying in Seattle.

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