Sam Darnold predicted to join Seahawks on 3-year deal for Matt Stafford money

Nothing is guaranteed in the NFL, especially not in the world of free agency. However, all signs since Friday night's Geno Smith trade point to the Seattle Seahawks targeting and signing Sam Darnold as their next starting quarterback.

The latest buzz we have heard on Darnold comes from Dianna Russini at The Athletic, who says the league expects the Seahawks to sign Darnold, but also that the Pittsburgh Steelers are expected to make an offer today. Assuming that Seattle is still in the lead to land him, let's see what analysts are predicting regarding what kind of contract Darnold could sign.

According to a free agency prediction piece from Matt Johnson at Sportsnaut, Darnold will join the Seahawks on a three-year deal worth $40 million a year.

This pretty much aligns with our own analysis. We have been expecting Darnold to sign a deal similar to Geno Smith's three-year contract he agreed to in 2022 which averaged $25 million per year, with a modest boost for inflation and Darnold being several years younger. Darnold was also playing at a higher level last season than Smith.

nfl — Dec 22, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) celebrates following a victory against the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field. | Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

$40 million per year is only slightly higher than our projected $37 million ceiling and would come as no great shock. Anything over a $40 million average would be a surprise, though.

For what it's worth, that figure would match what Matt Stafford is making on his new deal with the Los Angeles Rams. That would put Darnold at 15th in the league in annual salary.

Muchlike that previous three-year deal for Geno, this would represent an excellent value contract at quarterback. If Darnold picks up where he left off in 2024 and continues to play well into 2026 the Seahawks have the inside track to sign him to a more lucrative long-term deal. If Darnold regresses back to the quarterback he was early in his career the Jets, Seattle will probably be able to get out from under without too much fuss in a year - two at most.

Of course, all of that depends on the only things that really matters with these contracts: guaranteed money and how it's structured.

If the Seahawks strike out on Darnold it'll come as a pretty big blow, as they'll be practically guaranteed to take a step back at QB this year. Justin Fields is also worth a long look in the event they can't get Darnold, but that's about it as far as acceptable veteran options in 2025. Aside from Darnold the only other quarterback who's been connected to Seattle so far is Aaron Rodgers.

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