Steelers Predicted to Lose Aaron Rodgers to Dark Horse Team

While the Pittsburgh Steelers are the overwhelming favorites to sign Aaron Rodgers should he decide to return for a 22nd season in the NFL, that doesn't mean he can't or won't explore his other opportunities if any pop up.

In an article for FOX Sports during the NFL Scouting Combine, Henry McKenna predicted that Rodgers will make a surprising decision upon hitting the open market for a second-straight offseason and ultimately join the Arizona Cardinals, who have parted ways with Kyler Murray and now have a hole at quarterback.

“Here’s a weird one, because this is clearly the third-best destination,” McKenna wrote. “But I suspect Rodgers is going to stall his decision past the point of the Steelers’ patience. Remember: Rodgers makes his offseason decisions slowly, often after free agency and the draft. If he retires late in the offseason, it would leave his team without a QB. And this is an offseason where the Steelers can afford to wait for Rodgers to come out of an ayahuasca-driven darkness retreat.

“So when he emerges, he’ll see the Steelers have a new QB. But something tells me that the Cardinals will be interested in him.”

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) fires off a pass during the first half of an NFL football game at Huntington Bank Field, Dec. 28, 2025, in Cleveland, Ohio. | Jeff Lange / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Where Steelers Stand With Rodgers

All offseason, the messaging and prevailing belief surrounding Pittsburgh's situation with Rodgers was that he wouldn't linger on the open market for several months, much like he did in 2025 before signing a one-year deal last June.

During an appearance on "The Pat McAfee Show" earlier this week, however, Rodgers stated that there was no deadline for him to inform the Steelers of his intentions for the 2026 campaign and that there isn't presently an offer on the table.

"Talked to Mike [McCarthy]," he said. "Talked to Omar [Khan]. No deadline. No contract offer or anything. Nothing that I’m having to debate between. I’m a free agent. Again, I'm enjoying my time with my wife and enjoying this part of the offseason. I think there's conversations to be had down the line. But right now, I'm not. ... There hasn't been any progressive conversations."

Rodgers spoke glowingly about his time in Pittsburgh as well as his connection to McCarthy, who was the four-time MVP's head coach with the Green Bay Packers from 2006 to 2018.

Just by reading the tea leaves, it certainly feels like Rodgers will choose to return and suit up for another season with the Steelers. Until he actually puts pen to paper, though, nothing is set in stone.

Is Losing Out on Rodgers an Actual Possibility?

The Cardinals, much like Pittsburgh, are among several teams around the league with a vacancy behind center, but it's hard to imagine Rodgers ever deciding to potentially finish his Hall of Fame career with a team that is in a rebuild.

Sure, Arizona's new head coach in Mike LaFleur is the brother of Rodgers' former Packers head coach Matt LaFleur, but that's more of a minute detail rather than a real factor in the 42-year-old's decision-making process as a free agent.

Though he hasn't come out and explicitly said it, it appears as though it's Steelers or bust for Rodgers at this stage. That's not to say the situation can't change and another team entices him to sign with them or at least strongly consider that possibility, but Pittsburgh has a pretty clear leg up.

It remains to be seen if Rodgers will sign with the Steelers shortly after the legal tampering period begins, but the organization would benefit greatly from him making his decision far earlier in the process than he did the last time around.

Should Rodgers opt not to play for McCarthy in Pittsburgh, however, the team would likely then have to find another veteran bridge option either on the open market or via trade while also potentially selecting a signal caller in the 2026 NFL Draft to pair with Will Howard and Mason Rudolph.

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