Super Bowl LXI Road Map: Buccaneers May Just Be NFC South Contenders

Tampa Bay lost some high-profile talent but still has a good, young core. Can Baker Mayfield land a new contract and get them over the hump?

Baker Mayfield has won one playoff game in three seasons in Tampa. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Super Bowl road maps: Jaguars | Bears | Browns | Dolphins | Packers | Lions | Texans | Vikings | Falcons | Chiefs

Welcome to Super Bowl LXI road maps, where we look at every team’s chances of winning it all in 2026. We’ll analyze the summer optimism before providing a reality check of what’s to come. Next path to assess: the Buccaneers.

Just having an attractive roster hasn’t been enough to elevate the Buccaneers from NFC South contenders to a team capable of winning the Super Bowl. 

On paper, Tampa Bay appears stronger than at this point last year. The Bucs used their first-round pick on edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr., and signed linebacker Alex Anzalone and defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson. But the hype around them isn’t the same as last summer, partly because of how the team crumbled after a 6–2 start in 2025. Even with a star-studded roster, the Buccaneers ended the season in a three-way tie with the Panthers and Falcons atop the division. Carolina won the NFC South crown at 8–9, due to having a better head-to-head record among the three teams. 

Additionally, it doesn’t say much to be in the mix until the final week of the regular season for the league’s weakest division. The disappointing season resulted in the Buccaneers making tough decisions, such as firing offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard and special teams coordinator Thomas McGaughey. But the biggest move was letting star receiver Mike Evans walk in free agency after 12 years with the team (though the team did make a push to bring him back and he wanted to go to San Francisco).

With these decisions, the Buccaneers are clearly retooling, but that shouldn’t be confused with rebuilding. They are still loaded with depth and young talent, which didn’t do them much favors last year due to a massive wave of injuries. With better injury luck, Tampa Bay could regroup and take steps forward with all the offseason changes. The notable newcomers are known for their tenacity on the field, perhaps an indicator of how coach Todd Bowles wants his team to play in 2026. 

Also, the core group is still intact despite the departure of Evans and cornerback Jamel Dean, who signed with the Steelers. Baker Mayfield, Tristan Wirfs, Vita Vea and Antoine Winfield Jr. are all returning to lead the team. However, what the Buccaneers decide to do with Mayfield’s contract dilemma this summer will be a telling sign of how highly GM Jason Licht views this familiar core group for the long run. If Mayfield doesn’t get his extension, this could be a make-or-break season for many in Tampa Bay, including Bowles.  

Perhaps uncertainty and drastic changes were needed for an attractive roster that has gotten complacent in recent years. 

Leadership

Bowles could be on the hot seat heading into his fifth season, based on the significant changes he made for his staff. He replaced Grizzard with Zac Robinson, the former offensive play-caller in Atlanta, and swapped McGaughey for Danny Smith, who spent the past 13 years as the Steelers’ special teams coordinator. 

With Robinson, Bowles is returning to the Sean McVay coaching tree in hopes of getting Mayfield’s best. Mayfield had a career season when Liam Coen was the Buccaneers’ OC in 2024 before he took the job with the Jaguars. Coen and Robinson worked together for three seasons under McVay with the Rams. 

However, Robinson struggled as a first-time play-caller during his two seasons with the Falcons. But Robinson could get better quarterback play from Mayfield after going back and forth between Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix Jr. the past two seasons. 

Bowles is hoping these coaching changes buy him extra time in Tampa Bay, but the biggest question marks are on his side of the ball. He’s the one who runs the show on defense and doesn’t have a defensive coordinator on his staff. 

Last season, the Buccaneers faded down the stretch in large part because they couldn’t generate consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks, which didn’t allow Bowles to be as aggressive as he has in years past with his play calls.   

The Buccaneers are hoping Rueben Bain Jr. will make an immediate impact as a rookie. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Most influential roster move

That’s where the draft selection of Bain comes in. On one hand, the team might have gotten a draft steal when the Miami product was available with the No. 15 pick in April’s draft. On the other hand, Tampa Bay might have been more willing than other teams to look past his lack of arm length due to a massive need at edge rusher. 

Bain’s 30 7/8-inch arms could present limitations for him on the field, but he could make up for that disadvantage with his relentless motor. Clearly, Bowles wants more of a physical team based on the moves the team made this offseason to repair the defense. Still, there’s plenty riding on Bain to be a difference-maker in his rookie season. The team lacks depth at edge rusher unless Yaya Diaby finally puts it together in his fourth season. Perhaps the signing of veteran Al-Quadin Muhammad can assist with these concerns. 

Ideally, Bain would have benefited from playing with a defense that already had an established No. 1 edge rusher to buy him time to get adjusted to the pro game. However, he found a way to make it work in college, recording 9.5 sacks for Miami last year en route to a national title game appearance. While this draft selection was a gamble for the Buccaneers, it was definitely one worth making to possibly boost Bowles’s stagnant defense in 2026. 

Why this offseason move will (or won’t) work

As for another gamble, the Buccaneers will be counting on their inexperienced wide receivers to grow up in a hurry with Evans now playing for the 49ers. But the decision to let Evans walk will probably work out for the team, as the Buccaneers still have Chris Godwin Jr., a veteran accustomed to seeing plenty of targets. 

If Emeka Egbuka needs extra time to get acclimated to being Mayfield’s new No. 1 playmaker, Godwin can take more of the workload in the first quarter of the season, but Godwin will need to stay healthy after playing fewer than 10 games in each of the past two seasons. Evans also missed nine games last season, and the team went 4–5 without him.

There’s also Jalen McMillan, who showed plenty of upside as a rookie in 2024, but was limited to four games last year due to a significant neck injury. Tez Johnson, a 2025 seventh-rounder, stepped up amid the injuries last year, and the team added extra depth with April’s third-round selection of Ted Hurst III.

It won’t be easy replacing Evans, but Mayfield should still have plenty of options in the passing game. 

Emeka Egbuka will have more on his plate with Mike Evans’s departure. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Breakout player candidate: Emeka Egbuka, WR 

Perhaps it’s a bit silly to list Egbuka as a breakout candidate with how well he played last season, but he did hit a noticeable rookie wall and hasn’t yet shown he can be a consistent No. 1 wide receiver. 

The Buccaneers are banking on him making that leap in Year 2 and are hopeful he can do more of what he did in the first five weeks of last season before a hamstring injury hindered his progression. In that span, Egbuka had two 100-yard receiving games and recorded a combined five receiving touchdowns. After Week 5, Egbuka only topped 100 receiving yards once and had just one touchdown in the final 12 games. Overall, the 2025 first-rounder recorded 63 catches for 938 yards and six touchdowns. 

Opposing defenses might have figured out how to defend Egbuka after his hot start. It’s now on him and Mayfield to make counter adjustments, especially with Evans no longer around. 

Missing piece

Come September, the obvious answer might be to find another quality edge rusher to take some pressure off Bain ahead of his rookie season. 

However, there’s unfinished business with Mayfield’s contract dilemma. He recently told reporters he’s going to end contract negotiations with the team for the year if there’s no deal in place by the start of training camp in late July. Mayfield said over the weekend that “it’s a matter of finding that middle ground.” 

Mayfield has definitely outplayed his current yearly salary of $33.3 million—he signed a three-year, $100 million contract extension two years ago—but he might now be looking for a deal that averages north of $50 million annually, numbers that would align more with the highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL. That’s a steep price for a quarterback who has only produced one playoff victory in three seasons as the Buccaneers’ starter.  

It might not be a bad idea to have Mayfield play out his contract and force him to show he’s capable of taking this team to the next level, but that could create needless tension ahead of the season. So this goes back to finding that middle ground. Maybe it would be best to agree on a short-term deal to give Mayfield $50 million annually and the team some wiggle room to bail if the results are more of the same in the foreseeable future. 

Mayfield had a hot start to the 2025 season, but struggled down the stretch. He completed 63.2% of his passes for 3,693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. In 2024, Mayfield completed 71.4% of his passes for 4,500 yards, 41 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.

Realistic outlook 

How far this team goes depends on how quickly Bain can make an impact for the defense and whether Robinson can get Mayfield to play at an MVP-level again. 

But it’s tough to trust this team based on the mediocre results the past two seasons, despite playing in the weak NFC South. The Buccaneers have a reputation for playing down to the competition level of their divisional opponents. Until they show a killer instinct on the field, the Buccaneers are going to again merely be NFC South contenders. 

Still, there’s upside on this attractive roster to be a lot more than that in 2026 if the bold changes pay off.  

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