Super Bowl LXI Road Map: Falcons Pressed for Time With Loaded Offensive Core

Now, Atlanta needs Michael Penix Jr. or Tua Tagovailoa to step up in Kevin Stefanski’s first year as coach.

It's up to either Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix Jr. to get the Falcons back to the playoffs for the first time since 2017. | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Super Bowl road maps: Jaguars | Bears | Browns | Dolphins | Packers | Lions | Texans | Vikings

Welcome to Super Bowl LXI road maps, where we look at every team’s chances of winning it all in 2026. We’ll analyze the summer optimism before providing a reality check of what’s to come. Next path to assess: the Falcons.

It wasn’t that long ago that the Falcons were talked about as a team on the rise with all of their offensive talent compiled with their first-round picks between 2021 and ’24.

Tight end Kyle Pitts arrived first, followed by wide receiver Drake London and running back Bijan Robinson. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. wasn’t viewed as a sure thing like the aforementioned three players, but the 2024 No. 8 pick was supposed to complete the offensive investments from that four-year span. Initially, Kirk Cousins was viewed as that missing piece to play with Pitts, London and Robinson, but the Falcons couldn’t pass on Penix in the draft, despite handing Cousins a four-year, $180 million contract a month prior.  

To speed up this summary, Penix, to no surprise, quickly took Cousins’s job and went into 2025 as QB1, also known as the season that changed the trajectory of the team. After Penix’s struggles and after he sustained a torn ACL, Atlanta is now viewed as a stagnant team that may not have a quarterback of the future on its roster. Penix is now being forced to compete for the starting job with Tua Tagovailoa, the former Dolphins starter.  

Also, difficult contract dilemmas quickly snuck up on the team regarding the future of the impressive but unproven core group that was assembled for the offense with the first-round picks. The Falcons haven’t made the postseason since 2017 and have won exactly seven or eight games in every season since ’21.

However, the Falcons didn’t need a playoff appearance to know that they needed to lock down London, who last week signed a four-year, $141 million contract extension. The decision was a little trickier with Pitts, but he also signed a three-year, $54 million extension this week after a strong 2025 season. Atlanta had placed the franchise tag on Pitts after he recorded 88 catches for 928 yards and five touchdowns. 

Robinson is an obvious player to re-sign, but he might be taking a wait-and-see approach with new coach Kevin Stefanski before committing to a team that hasn’t gotten much right in the past decade. That leaves Atlanta’s closing question unresolved: whether its offensive core can finally put the team over the top.

Leadership

In most cases, star running backs shouldn’t wait to sign lucrative contract extensions. But Robinson, the 2023 No. 8 pick, is viewed across the league as a dominant player who hasn’t been used properly in Atlanta. 

Despite playing for a subpar offense, Robinson has generated at least 1,400 rushing yards in each of the past two seasons and recorded career highs in receptions (79) and receiving yards (820) last season. Saquon Barkley faced similar challenges early in his career as the No. 2 pick of the Giants in 2018. It wasn’t until he left New York for Philadelphia that he maximized his talent and started winning playoff games.

Perhaps in the back of Robinson’s mind, he’s wondering whether a change of scenery is best for him after playing out his rookie deal in Atlanta. If that’s the case, Stefanski might have a year or two to prove he’s the right coach to help this talented offense play up to its potential. 

Stefanski produced a top-10 offense in points scored in his lone season as the Vikings’ offensive coordinator in 2019 and delivered physical, efficient offenses during his first four seasons with the Browns. But Stefanski operated arguably the league’s worst offense the past two years, with Cleveland averaging fewer than 17 points per game in ’24 and ’25 due largely to poor quarterback play. 

In Atlanta, Stefanski has Pitts, London and Robinson, three of the better players at their respective positions. Still, the results won’t change for Stefanski and the Falcons’ trio until there’s a reliable quarterback in place.

It’s on Stefanski, offensive coordinator Tommy Rees and quarterbacks coach Alex Van Pelt to make sure they pick the right quarterback between Penix and Tagovailoa and produce an ideal scheme for that player to be the point guard of an offense rich with high-level playmakers. 

On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich was retained from Raheem Morris’s coaching staff after delivering promising results, especially from the 2025 draft class featuring safety Xavier Watts and first-round edge rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. For this year’s draft, there were new decision-makers after the team hired GM Ian Cunningham and president of football operations Matt Ryan, the Falcons’ former MVP quarterback.

After the poor results since Ryan’s glory days, there’s plenty of pressure on all the new faces to get this franchise headed in the right direction in 2026.

Most influential roster move

If Tagovailoa can play the way he did for Mike McDaniel in his first two seasons as coach of the Dolphins, that might be the ideal quarterback style for getting the most from this talented offense. Tagovailoa threw for a league-high 4,624 passing yards in 2023.

However, Tagovailoa is coming off two rough seasons, has an extensive injury history, and even when he was at his best, he struggled to play against teams with winning records; he was 6–17. All that led to Miami cutting ties with Tagovailoa despite signing him to a four-year, $212.4 million contract extension in 2024. 

That bad deal turned into a benefit for the Falcons, who only needed to hand Tagovailoa a one-year, $1.2 million veteran minimum deal. Atlanta desperately needed a bargain deal after giving Cousins $100 million guaranteed two years ago and using a top-10 pick on Penix.   

While Tagovailoa is the better rhythm and timing quarterback, Penix has the stronger arm and already has chemistry with the core players, but time isn’t on his side because he’s still working his way back from the significant knee injury he sustained in November. Regardless of who wins this QB1 job, that might not be enough to end the Falcons’ postseason drought. 

Why this offseason move will (or won’t) work

The Falcons might not be pleased with what they have seen from offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor, who now has competition for the right tackle opening after the team acquired Wanya Morris in a trade with the Chiefs earlier this month.

Taylor, who also played for the Chiefs last season, signed with the Falcons not long after Kaleb McGary announced his retirement in April. Taylor has been a quality starter in his eight-year career, but he’s unpredictable at times due to his tendency to be flagged for moving too early. It’s not a good sign for Taylor that the team needed to make a trade for Morris, who struggled in his 16 starts with the Chiefs.

Right tackle is more important to the Falcons than most teams because Penix and Tagovailoa are both left-handed quarterbacks. Overall, the Falcons have a strong offensive line with left tackle Jake Matthews and right guard Chris Lindstrom leading the charge.

Falcons edge Jalon Walker had 5.5 sacks in his rookie season. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Breakout player candidate: Jalon Walker, edge 

Walker didn’t make an immediate impact like his 2025 draft mates, Pearce and Watts. But with Walker being a hybrid player, it was always going to take him longer and the team to learn how to utilize his vast skill set.

Last year’s No. 15 pick can play edge rusher and off-ball linebacker, and he showed signs as a rookie of being able to handle a heavy workload from Ulbrich. Expect Walker to play faster and deliver more game-changing plays now that he has a year of experience under his belt. Also, the Falcons might need Walker to focus more on playing edge rusher with everything that has transpired with Pearce this offseason. Pearce accepted a one-year diversion program, which, if he completes it, will mean all charges stemming from a February incident with his ex-girlfriend and WNBA player Rickea Jackson will be dropped.

Pearce was drafted 11 picks after Walker after the team traded back into the first round and sent a 2026 first-rounder to the Rams. Last season, Walker had 5.5 sacks while Pearce recorded 10.5 sacks. 

Missing piece

Part of the reason why the Falcons didn’t hesitate to hand London $140 million was due to how dominant he’s been despite the lack of depth at wide receiver. The team has failed to find him a suitable No. 2 wideout, which is why Pitts’s inconsistency in his career has hurt the team in previous years.

Pitts did his part last year, but the Falcons shouldn’t rely on only him to help London get more favorable matchups on the field. Signing a notable free agent such as Keenan Allen or Stefon Diggs (both still available) would give this offense a boost and provide another security blanket for Penix or Tagovailoa. Also, adding another consistent playmaker would make life easier for Robinson, who has a lot on his plate as a rusher and receiver. 

Perhaps the Falcons will wait to make a significant move at wide receiver to see what they have in rookie third-rounder Zachariah Branch, who has impressed at times this offseason.  

Realistic outlook 

The Falcons have the benefit of playing in the subpar NFC South and certainly could win the division if Penix or Tagovailoa provides some stability at quarterback. 

But this is still a middle-of-the-pack team that likely won’t win 10 games for the first time since 2017. It could take Stefanski some time to get positive results from the unproven offense, and it’s not a given that Ulbrich will again get strong results from the defense with Morris no longer around. 

With that said, team owner Arthur Blank would likely welcome a one-and-done playoff appearance with how misguided this franchise has been since Ryan and Julio Jones were in their primes.

---