Trade Deadline Debate: 2 Bold Predictions from AllTitans' Tom Brew, Tyler Rowland
NASHVILLE — The Tennessee Titans are off to a very shaky 2-4 start through the first six weeks of the NFL season, and there's not a lot of positivity heading into the bye week.
The Titans don't play again until they host the Atlanta Falcons on Oct. 29 and then, two days later, is the NFL's trade deadline. Looking nothing like a playoff contender these days, the rumors are flying fast and furious that Tennessee will be sellers at the deadline.
There are rumors galore floating around, of course, and everyone has an opinion. Some are outlandish, some way over-the-top. Some are flat-out crazy.
But here at AllTitans.com, we like to be bold, too, while still staying in our lane. We're journalists first, not rumor-mongers
But staff writer Tyler Rowland and I also feel like something's got to give, right? So we've got a few bold predictions on some things that might happen before the month is out.
We'll start with Tyler. Let's go.
Tyler Rowland: Derrick Henry Not Only Doesn't Get Traded, He's On the Titans in 2024
While the theory of trading Derrick Henry does make sense, the reality is Henry is more likely to be in the Titans' future than their past. To trade Henry, a team acquiring him would have to take on the remainder of Henry's salary which will be a touch more than $5 million.
There are 10 teams in the NFL right now that don't even have enough cap space to make the move, cutting the possible buyers by a third. Logical fits for Henry like the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles are all on that list of cap-strapped teams. Now, as we know, teams can manipulate the books, but it is much more difficult to do midseason than in the offseason.
Not only could the financial aspect get in the way of a Henry trade, but the fact Henry is in the last year of his four-year, $50-million deal means he would simply be a half-season rental for any team trading for him. That might lower what a team is willing to risk.
With the risk of trading for Henry and the financial constraints a deal could create, there are many reasons why a deal doesn't get done. The primary reason? It just might be Mike Vrabel.
The Titans' head coach is not the type to fall on his sword and give up on a season. Vrabel is similarly unlikely to be OK with losing in 2024 as well. If Vrabel thinks either young quarterback, Will Levis or Malik Willis, can reasonably replace Tannehill, he will want to keep weapons around them. Henry is still a weapon.
The Titans drafted running back Tyjae Spears with the idea of going cheaper at running back down the road. In theory, next season we will see Spears and a reasonably-priced veteran in a running back by committee system.
Unless a team steps up to give Henry a deal of $10 million or more in 2024 — which would seem to be a surprise in this current running back climate across the league — the odds are that Henry signs a more reasonable short-term deal anyway.
So, why can't Henry be that reasonably-priced veteran back in that committee? I think he will be.
Tom Brew: Sad reality is Titans' roster can't generate enough viable draft capital for quick turnaround, so nothing big will happen
The Titans were never going to win a Super Bowl this year, and they were a long-shot to make the playoffs or even finish with a .500 record or better. They just aren't that good, and are downright terrible in many areas.
None of that — Super Bowls, playoffs, etc. — is likely to happen next year either, based on the current makeup of this team. There are two ways to rebuild it — through the draft and through free agency — and gathering draft picks now is a cute little thought.
But it's not reality.
The biggest mistake Titans fans make is that they think they can have a mass sell-off right now and get a lot of first- and second-rounds picks. Well, I'm telling you now that's impossible. Because of contracts — mostly those that are expiring like Henry and quarterback Ryan Tannehill — no one is giving up a high pick for either one of them.
Tannehill is interesting because fans have been clamoring to move on from him anyway, because he's just done nothing for going on two years now. But they still expect to trade him for a decent pick — and that will never happen. The one team hoping to win big this year, the New York Jets, didn't even bother to make a call on Tannehill, according to sources, because they feel like he's done. No NFL team would give the Titans more than a fifth- or sixth-round pick for him, and even that's highly unlikely. He basically has no trade value.
With a new stadium coming down the road in three years, the perfect scenario for the Titans is to be sure that they're playoff ready in 2027. That could mean a couple more years of ugly. There may be some veterans who get moved now, but the list won't be distinguished and the haul won't be very big.
Look at the older guys first. Defensive lineman Denico Autry is 33, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins 31. Both are great guys and hard workers — I've loved having Hopkins around — but they are not going to be here beyond 2024. Hopkins might get a fourth or fifth. Autry, who knows?
Safety Kevin Byard is 30, and has already taken a pay cut once. He loves being in Nashville, but a contender could want him. Still, maybe that's just a fourth or fifth. Anyone else? Nope. The other older guys are underachieving offensive linemen.
Two interesting names might be pass rushers Arden Key and Harold Landry III. They've had some nice moments, but have been disappointments as a whole. We thought they would dominate games before the season started and that really hasn't happened.
Heck, kicker Nick Folk, who's been perfect since he got here, might have some value. There are a lot of Super Bowl contender who might feel the need to grab a veteran.
So you get my point, right? Even with a lot of shuffling, there's no high-end draft picks coming back. The Titans are about to finally leave salary cap hell and have more than $80 million to play with next year, and possibly more after some trades.
That's where EVERY decision has to be a good one. And that's my bold prediction for now, that this trade deadline really won't matter in the big picture. There's not a lot to be gained with mid- and late-round picks, especially when you factor in how terrible the Titans have been for years in draft players who matter. They have failed miserably in the draft before Ran Carthon took over last year.
This is all on Carthon and the management team to get better as fast as they can. But you can guarantee that 2027 is in the back of all of their minds. When they move into that new stadium, with all the bling, they want to be good. That's a few draft classes — and a few free agency windows — away.
So don't be disappointed if the Titans don't make a big splash in a few weeks. There's not a lot to accumulate, primarily because there's not a lot of talent here right now.
And I know Titans fans don't want to hear this, but you're going to have to be patient.
And that's for years, not months.
Point/Counterpoint: Weighing in on Tom and Tyler's takes
TOM BREW: I can see Tyler's take playing out, that Henry and the Titans deciding that riding his career out to the finish line here in Nashville is a good thing. It's not a bad idea. Legacy is a thing, right?
Henry might be willing to take a two-deal deal for say $8-9 million a year plus incentives to stay around. He's still got something to give — we've seen that in splashes this season — and he's the face of this franchise. Let him retire as a Titan, and still do good things for the next few years.
Here's the last thing to remember. Ran Carthon, the new Titans general manager, is a former running back, and he has a massive amount of respect for Derrick Henry. I think it's highly unlikely that he wants to trade Henry for a pick that might not ever amount to anything anyway. The pride factor might be too much.
TYLER ROWLAND: As for Tom's take, it could play out that way where we see nothing happen. If the Titans win against Atlanta in Week 8 to move to 3-4, that becomes almost a certainty.
The truth here is, Mike Vrabel is not for tanking, "prioritizing the future" or whatever you want to call it. He only cares about winning and owes it to the veterans in the locker room to keep wins as the main goal. While the fan base is ready for conclusions, Vrabel is not. He will scratch out every win and will need his veterans to do so. The draft pick of Will Levis tells us this as well. The Titans targeted Levis because of his familiarity with a pro system.
The idea was to insert Levis and keep rolling as normal, not slow down because of a young quarterback. While everyone would love to restack the cupboards, the Titans don't have a lot of trade options that would garner anything significant in return.
