Tyler's Take: If Tannehill Traded, Titans MUST Trade up in NFL Draft

NASHVILLE — The Tennessee Titans have been heavily involved in the rumor mill this offseason being connected to quarterbacks like Tom Brady(pre-retirement), Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr. They also have been rumored to be interested in trading up to the first pick in the draft. The latest rumor though, has to do with trading Tannehill to the New York Jets. If the Titans do eventually do that, they need to have another big move planned. And by big move, I mean trading up in the NFL draft to take a top quarterback.

A Ryan Tannehill trade makes a lot of sense. You clear $17.8 million in cap space while also collecting, most likely, multiple draft picks. Despite what some in the fan base think, Tannehill would garner multiple picks in a trade. Recently Sam Darnold, a quarterback not as talented or productive as Tannehill in recent years, was able to fetch the Jets three draft picks(6th in 2021, 2nd and 4th in 2022) in 2021 when the trade was made. That year Darnold cost the Carolina Panthers, where Darnold was traded to, only $4.7 million on the cap, but also $18.5 million in 2022.

If the Jets acquired Tannehill, they would be taking on his $27 million salary, but would most likely extend Tannehill for a few years to lower that charge. Essentially, the price for each QB would be relatively the same, but Tannehill is a better player. That is why it is only reasonable to expect the Titans would receive 2-3 draft picks in a similar range. A 2nd round pick would be the start, with no question, and then additional mid-round compensation would come after.

The point of all of this is to explain why it would make sense for the Titans to follow up any Tannehill trade with another trade up in the draft. If the Titans save $17.8 million on Tannehill, they can use the savings to create a better team around a rookie. They’ll have access to those savings early enough to make moves in the opening period of free agency in mid-march.

Other than the savings, the other side of this is what a trade up in the draft would cost. Going from pick 11 to the top five or higher would be EXPENSIVE, no doubt. It would most likely cost 5-6 draft picks including this year’s first and next year’s first along with multiple mid-round picks over the next two drafts(2023 and 2024). I, however, don’t see that as a big issue.

First, the picks you got in the Tannehill trade can either be used in the draft trade up to the top five or be held as a way to replace the picks given up in the draft trade. Second, the Titans cap situation is endlessly healthier in 2024 than it is currently. Without the additions the Titans are likely to make in free agency in 2023 and a pending Jeffery Simmons’ deal, the Titans are set to have $90 million in cap space in 2024. That is based on a NFL salary cap number of $235 million. Some reports indicate that number could be closer to $245 million.

So, even if the Titans make some big signings in 2023 of outside free agents or internal ones, they will most likely have $40-70 million in cap space next offseason. The point is even if they don’t have a lot of draft picks due to a trade in 2023, they will have enough cap room next offseason to fill out the roster regardless. If the Titans only have a few picks next draft, then fine. They will have a ton of money to add the players they need still.

Go ahead and trade Tannehill, the second best quarterback in Titans’ history, but the worst thing the Titans could do after is saddle themselves to another overpaid veteran passer, like Derek Carr, for instance, If Tannehill is traded, the Titans need to follow it up with a big draft trade up the board to get their quarterback of the future. Who will be on a cheap four-five year contract and give the Titans a real window to build a great team.

Titans 'Interested' in Carr: The Titans continue to be linked to outside quarterback options this offseason. This time it is Derek Carr, former Las Vegas Raider. CLICK HERE

Jets "Much Higher" On Tannehill: The New York Jets are “much higher” on Titans’ quarterback Ryan Tannehill than many people believe according to one prominent New York reporter. CLICK HERE

Top Three Defensive Needs: Andrew Thomison looks at the top three positions of need for the Titans entering the 2023 season. CLICK HERE