Playoff Chances Rising Quickly

After a 0-2 start, analytics see promise in consecutive victories over the Las Vegas Raiders, Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders.

Christopher Hanewinckel/USA Today Sports

NASHVILLE – The Tennessee Titans head into their bye weekend with the AFC's longest active win streak – three games.

That recent run of success predictably has increased their chances of making the playoffs for a fourth straight season.

But the numerical probability of the Titans making the postseason hasn’t necessarily been matched by public perception, if betting odds are any indication.

A quick disclaimer: Yes, it’s Week 6 and we’re talking about the playoffs. But this is the Titans’ bye week, so cut us some slack.

Tennessee's postseason chances got off to an ugly 0-2 start, a mark that – somewhat surprisingly – no team has overcome to reach the playoffs since Houston and Seattle did so in 2018. In fact, only eight teams in the last decade have bounced back from 0-2 starts to reach the postseason.

But victories over the Raiders, Colts and Commanders have imroved the Titans’ playoff odds dramatically, as illustrated by this Pro Football Focus graphic and by the New York Times’ playoff simulator, which notes that Tennessee’s chances to reach the postseason have jumped from 37 percent to 59 percent over the last five weeks.

In fact, the Times’ playoff simulator predicts that if the Titans beat the Colts next Sunday – which would give them a sweep of their division rival – then Tennessee would have a 78 percent chance of winning the AFC South and earning the postseason spot that comes with it.

More numbers that like the Titans’ playoff chances at this early stage?

The FiveThirtyEight analytical website gives the Titans a 65 percent chance of reaching the postseason, even if Tennessee’s projected final regular record is 9-8.

The betting public, however, doesn’t seem to be quite as sold as the Titans.

Per BetOnline.ag, for instance, the Titans are one of four NFL teams (along with Arizona, Cincinnati and Denver) that are now favored to miss the playoffs – after being favored to make them back in April. The Titans are +100 to make the playoffs now, -130 to miss the postseason. Six months ago, the Titans were -130 to make and +100 to miss.

The Titans are favored to make the playoffs by both DraftKings and FanDuel, but the odds in both instances are almost equal for yes and no bets.

Should the Titans win their next two games – at home against the Colts and on the road against the Texans – perhaps public perception regarding the playoffs will start catching up to numerical probability.