Albert Breer on Jets No. 2 Pick, Giants Draft Plan, 1st Round Trades?

For a team drafting 5th overall, I actually don't think they have a lot of holes.

All right.

Welcome in to the Brewer Report for Tuesday, April 14th.

The draft is just 9 days away and that's where the focus of today's Breer report will lie.

And we are going to start with where I believe, at least at this point, the NFL draft starts, which is with the 2nd pick.

We've known for a while now, Fernando Mendoza going 1st overall to the Las Vegas Raiders.

The tea leaves read very, very clear on this one, so we don't need to waste our time on that one.

We can move to 2, and what the Jets are gonna do.

And most people around the league believe that this is gonna come down to the top 2 pass rushers in this year's class.

Arvell Reese from Ohio State and David Bailey from Texas Tech.

There's one.

Very clear distinction between the two of these players that I think is going, that I, that I think colors where the Jets are leaning right now.

On one hand, you've got David Bailey, who played at Stanford, who transferred to Texas Tech, who's a high production guy.

All the pass rush analytics are very, very high with him.

Um, everything that you'd want in a traditional pass rusher, that's what David Bailey is.

So, he may be a little deficient against the run.

The hope is that he gets stronger, plays a little bit harder against the run, but from a pass rush perspective, he's relentless.

He's drawn some comparisons to Nick Bonito.

You know what you're getting with David Bailey.

I think 32 teams would have a very good idea of what they're gonna do with David Bailey if they draft David Bailey.

Arvel Reese is different.

Arvel Reese is part of this new genre of defensive players, the hybrid off.

Football linebacker slash edge rusher, and we saw it first, I think, you know, at least at a, at a high level with Micah Parsons 5 years ago.

There were some off-field questions with Micah, but one of the reasons that he fell out of the top 10, a big reason was because teams couldn't figure out exactly what to do with him.

He had played off the ball and on the ball at Penn State, and so there wasn't a clear vision for what he was gonna be as a pro.

Obviously, we know what he's become since.

He's the highest-paid player.

Um, on the defensive side of the ball in the history of the NFL now, $46 million per year in new money on the contract that he did with the Packers after being dealt from the Cowboys, and his success has sprung a genre of, of player that we've seen mirroring what he is, which is a Swiss Army knife for your front seven.

And so over the last couple of years, we've seen guys like this come out of college.

Abdul Carter, coming out of Penn State, same school as Micah Parsons is a good example of it, was the 2nd overall pick last year to the New York Giants.

You got Jihad Campbell, um, from Alabama, who went to the Philadelphia Eagles, played a role as an off-ball linebacker for the Eagles last year.

You've got Jalen Walker, who went to the Falcons last year, um, you know, Raheem Morris and Jeff Ulbricht figured out a role for him, and he wound up being a very productive player in year one.

And so that's what Arvel Reese is.

Arvel Reese is that sort of player where you've got to figure out what you're gonna do with him.

Then you got to take into account the situation the Jets are in.

And the Jets turned over a big chunk of their coaching staff in the offseason.

12 assistant coaches were fired, both coordinators gone.

Aaron Glenn is very much fighting for his job, um, and it may not even be just, you know, you have to fix it by the end of the season.

It may be, you know, you got to show progress early in the season.

And so, there's that piece of it, the job security piece of it.

I also think beyond just that though, you know, getting away from, from any of, of that stuff.

You also, if you're, if you're Aaron Glenn, you have to have something you can sell your players.

And, you know, over the course of last year, they trade away Quinnin Williams, they trade away Sauce Gardner.

Everything was focused towards the future.

The quarterback situation was a mess.

I think as much as anything, early in 2026, what this is gonna be about for Aaron Glenn is building belief and finding a way to provide that light at the end of the tunnel for his program in New York.

And remember, he was a part of a build like this in Detroit, where they were real bad their first year, but they were able to come on at the end of that year and, you know, win 3 of 6 to finish that season.

And put themselves at least in a position where they could say, OK, here's some light at the end of the tunnel.

They had a tough start the next year, but they were playing hard and you saw them turn the corner in the second half of their 2nd year in Detroit, we see what they were able to become.

He's got to provide that sort of light at the end of the tunnel.

And so he needs guys who can help him do that now.

And so if you're looking at Arvel Reese and saying, he didn't play a ton of off-ball linebacker at, at, at Ohio State, he didn't play a ton of edge rusher at Ohio State, if you compare him to other.

Guys who are generally drafted that high.

So it may take some time.

The athletic potential is off the charts, but is this really something that we want to do in the here and the now versus David Bailey, who again, right out of the box, I don't think there's much question what he's gonna be.

He can help you right now.

I think he's a guy who can help Aaron Glenn provide his players with that light at the end of the tunnel.

And give hope to ownership and everyone in the else in the organization that, that, that staying the course is the right thing to do.

So, it feels to me like David Bailey is a pick.

The people I've talked to, and these are still early phone calls, guys are still in their draft meetings and we'll have more and better information as the week, you know, as the week wears on as we get into next week.

But at this point, a lot of teams are operating on the assumption that David Bailey will be the 2nd overall pick.

It's not over, but again, a lot of teams are operating on that assumption that David Bailey will be the 2nd pick to the New York Jets.

And that, and, and if you're looking at it that way, then the draft would start at 3.

If we get to the point where we look at Mendoza to the Raiders, Bailey to the Jets on the same sort of level, and I'm not saying we're anywhere close to being there yet .

And that brings us to our second topic, which is what teams could be looking to move down and what teams could be looking to move up.

The Cardinals sitting there with the 3rd overall pick would be an example of teams looking to move down, and there are a lot of teams looking to move down, and that is due to the makeup of this year's draft class, what you don't have at the very top, and this is the problem with this year's class.

You don't have prototypes of premium positions, and that's what you're looking for at the top of the draft.

So, once you get past Mendoza, you don't have another quarterback worthy of going that high.

You also don't have a Miles Garrett, Jadeveon Clowney.

Um, Julius Pepper's type of defensive end.

You don't have a Julio Jones, AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, Ja'Marr Chase type of receiver.

You don't have a Joe Alt, Pena Sewell type of left tackle.

You don't have even a Patrick Certan type of corner.

So, you're compromising something.

The best players might be the guys at the non-premium positions.

Guys like Sonny Stiles, the off-ball linebacker from Ohio State, Caleb Downs, safety from Ohio State, Jeremiah Love, the running back from Notre Dame.

And so, The teams at the top are looking at this and saying, maybe I'm more comfortable taking the safety or the linebacker later on.

I want to take them, but I don't want to take them at 3 or 4 or 5.

Maybe I really like the pass rushers, but I don't view them as that different as the rusher that I could get at 11 or 12.

And so those teams are sitting there looking to accumulate.

Capital.

And so, looking at some of the teams that are looking to move down, I'm gonna give you the next 5 in a row after the Jets.

The Cardinals are exploring moving down.

The Titans are very open to moving down.

The Giants would move down, the Browns would move down, the Commanders would move down.

That's 5 teams right there.

The Cardinals only have 7 picks.

Um, so, I think they view it as, if somebody wants to come up and get Arvel Reese with Bailey gone, presumably.

If Bailey's gone and Reese is there.

Somebody wants to come up and get Arvel Reese because they view those two guys as different than the other pass rushers.

Maybe they have something to sell with the 3rd overall pick.

Maybe somebody wants to get in front of the Titans to get Jeremiah Love.

Um, the Cardinals only have 7 picks.

The Titans have more picks, but the Titans also have a lot of holes.

And so the Titans are looking.

at it like, we want this draft to be transformative for us with a new coaching staff coming in, Robert Salah and his group, Brian Dabo running the offense, Gus Bradley coming over to be the defensive coordinator.

So we look at this as a draft where if we can have a lot of volume, we can fill a lot of holes.

The Giants, they have 7 picks.

And they don't have a third-rounder, and there's this big gap they have between their pick in the 30s and then their pick at 107.

So, there's a big gap there .

If they could find a way to fill that gap with a third-round pick, I think they'd do it.

The Browns have 9 picks, but I think the Browns are always looking to move assets around.

They're in the middle of a youth movement, so I think they would look at it as well.

And then the Commanders only have 6 picks.

I think they'd be looking to pick up some more capital too.

So those are 5 teams that are looking to move down.

Who could be looking to come up?

That's a more complicated question.

I think you'll have teams explore it, like maybe the Rams explore it, the Chiefs explore it, and those teams will be looking for deals.

Maybe the Eagles explore it , but I don't think they'd be coming up all the way into the top 10.

Um, maybe the Eagles would be looking to come up and get involved and when, whenever there's a tackle run, um.

I think those teams are the teams that are always making the calls.

The Cowboys are the one team that I think you look at and say, maybe there's a little something there, and maybe after trading Micah Parsons 6 months ago, 7 months ago, they look at the idea of Arvel Reese being the sort of player that could fill the role that they lost with Micah Parsons going out the door.

And they have 12 and 20, so they can package those picks together, and that on the draft value chart would almost get them to the point.

Where it can move them all the way up to 3.

So if you're the Cowboys, how do you look at this?

Do you look at like maybe getting a Caleb Downs at 12 and like a Colton Hood at 20, uh, versus getting a Reese at 3.

I think that's a very real question and an interesting one to ponder, but more teams looking to move down, no question about it, because of the makeup of the draft than they are looking to come up.

Um, I think once we get past the 1st 15 or 20 picks, that changes some with maybe some more teams looking to move up on the board again to get involved in, in some of those runs on positions because when the draft class is flat, I think this draft class is relatively flat, especially once you get out of the top 10, um, you will have positions coming off of the board in a row, and, you know, sometimes a team might have a need that they want to come up and fill.

Um, and feel like, you know, where they're picking the position might wind up running a little dry.

Finally, our third topic, the Giants draft approach.

I'm gonna have a story on the Giants this week.

I'm looking forward to sharing that with all you guys.

Uh, and looking at where the Giants are at, it's an interesting spot to be in for a team drafting 5th overall, I actually don't think they have a lot of holes.

Um, You know, the offensive line is somewhere to look.

They just paid Jermaine Alumior $13 million a year.

On the other end of it, you've got, you've got Andrew Thomas, who's a big money left tackle.

Would they draft Francis Mainoa?

Maybe.

Um, that's something that that's an area that John Harbaugh did it, did, did say he wants to address, um, you know, the owners' meetings.

Would you look at a Carnell Tate there?

You know, Malik Davis coming back off the ACL, you want your young quarterback to hit the ground running.

You know, that would be a little bit of a move like what the Bengals did in, in drafting T.

Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase and kind of filling that receiver role for their young quarterback at the time, Joe Burrow.

Um, would you look at like Tate and neighbors as guys that could really complement one of one another and help Jackson Dart get off the ground.

Uh, Jeremiah Love would make some sense.

I haven't heard a lot of buzz that he would go there, but Jeremiah Love would make some sense, um, as a guy again who could help your young quarterback.

Um, and then Sonny Styles is another one that you hear a lot about.

And, you know, John Harbaugh over the years, whether it was, uh, you know, Ray Lewis.

or CJ Mosley or, or, or Roquan Smith.

He's always had this kind of battleship commander, middle linebacker, and so, do, what do you, what do you look at Sonny Stiles and see that sort of role for Sonny Stiles, um, you know, within, within his new Giants defense.

So those would be some of the names to consider.

I think they're wide open with the 5th pick.

Again, also open to moving down.

But there's one name I haven't heard much buzz on that I have my own opinion on.

And this is like, I haven't heard this from any NFL person, and this isn't me hiding anything.

I, this is just my own opinion.

But I actually think the guy who might fit the best, and maybe this would be with a move down, actually would be Caleb Downs.

And the reason why is John Harbaugh was part of remaking um the Ravens defense in 2018 when he promoted Wink Martindale to defensive coordinator.

And in doing so, the whole idea was to find a way to Play defense the way most teams play offense, dictate terms to an offense, the way an offense dictates terms to a defense.

And one of the main.

Pillars of all of that, of that plan was Eric Weddle.

And he gave Eric Weddle, he and Wink gave Eric Weddle the ability to adjust things on the fly, to change things on the fly, the way a quarterback would change things on the fly right up to the snap based on what he sees in the defense.

And so Eric Weddle was awesome in that role and was able to adjust things as they went and wound up changing the face of what the Ravens were defensively and actually spawning.

Um, a system that's been emulated all over the NFL.

Mike McDonald runs it in Seattle .

Jesse Minter ran it in LA.

Now he's back in Baltimore.

Um, but it did require having that heavy safety.

And Jesse Minter had that guy in Derwin James in Los Angeles.

Mike McDonald has worked with that sort of guy, a guy with that sort of potential, and Nicky Minori in Seattle .

And getting that sort of guy in the building, I think would have some value to, to, to John Harbaugh.

And so the idea of having Caleb Downs is that guy makes all the sense in the world to me because Caleb Downs' primary.

Strength is football IQ.

His football IQ is off the charts , great instincts, great, great, great player fundamentally, um, you know, just the sort of guy who's probably gonna be a captain in his 2nd year, and so, that's a name I'd keep an eye on.

But I think the Giants are relatively wide open because they don't have a need that I would say they have to press with the 5th overall pick.

Appreciate you guys coming out.

Uh, feel free as always to leave your feedback down below here on the YouTube page or you can get to me on my social media at Albert Breer on Twitter, at Albert R Breer on Facebook, at Albert_Breer on Instagram.

We will have a mailbag edition coming for you tomorrow, another Breer report at the end of the week, of course, all the coverage you can shake a stick at next week leading up to the draft.

Can't wait for that.

We will see you guys tomorrow.