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Transcript
Outside of the quarterback thing, Albert, I, I , I just want to close with like kind of a big picture thought here because I'm looking at the free agency and Just the players available.
And I do think, like, you know, I think this is gonna be a robust free agency.
Um, and, and, and the second question is, and, well, you know, Tyler Lindenbaum's gonna set the record for APY for a center, which is gonna be interesting, you know, it's gonna push that market up a little bit.
Closer to your interior offensive linemen and eventually your tackles too.
Yeah.
So it's gonna be a big year for the center market, but also, like, Kenneth Walker is going to make a lot of money, Tyler Algier is going to make a lot of money, Alec Pierce is going to make a lot of money.
And I, I'll put it to you this way, with A bad draft class.
Um, and again, I mean, Brett Veitch said it the other day, 25 of their top 100, initial top 100 went back to school for, uh, to take NIL money, OK, with a watered down draft, and with the idea that, like, you know, You have to wait for these guys.
What you're getting may just not be what you want, um, for a couple of reasons.
Does that make free agency like all the more important?
Well, the free agent class sucks too.
So like, you think this free agent class sucks ?
I think it's not good.
Yeah, I mean, I, I think it's like, I think it's just we're at the point now where the salary cap has escalated.
Like into an area where if you wanna keep a guy, you can keep a guy.
Um, I like Alec Pierce.
I like, I like Alec Pierce for Buffalo.
I like Alec Pierce for New England, you know, I know Tennessee and the Raiders are gonna be in on that one, San Francisco, um.
When the Colts broke the huddle in the fall, where was Pierce in the pecking order of skill players you were worried about?
Um, No, no, no , you go first.
For Yeah, I mean, Taylor Pittman Warren After those guys, right, so, and that's not to say he can't project to be more.
He's only 25, but like that's the guy we're talking about getting 25 $30 million.
Um, John Franklin Myers, really good player, right?
Like, and part of the reason it's the same with Pierce.
Like Pierce, it's harder for the Colts to pay him because they've already paid Pittman.
They've already paid Taylor.
Uh, but the same sort of thing with Franklin Myers where they've paid Zack Allen and Nick Bonito and, and Jonathan Cooper on their defensive front.
I mean, John, John Franklin Meyer is gonna cost over $20 million a year, you know, so like I think there's some good players there that are gonna be paid like they're great players, which is generally the way free agency works.
I think that the smart teams are gonna look at this and say, what can we address in the draft, right?
And where are the barren positions in the draft?
I think Houston is a good example of that this week when they went and got David Montgomery.
Part of that is, I think, an acknowledgement that like, You know, once you get past the two Notre Dame guys in the running back class, there's not a ton there, you know, and it might be the 4th round before one of these guys goes.
So once you get past, and they're not gonna have a shot at Jeremiah Love, they're not drafting high enough.
So then it's like, there's one guy, Jadon Price, and then if you don't get him, if that whatever doesn't work out with that, then are you like left and like you're hoping that a 4th or a 5th-round pick makes it, you know, so you trade for David Montgomery.
So, like, I think like that piece of it is interesting.
Like I think the defensive tackle group in the draft is shaky.
So you'll see the John Franklin Myers get pushed up the center crop isn't great in the draft.
So you see Tyler Linderbaum, I know he's shooting for 25.
I think he probably gets to like 22.
Um, you know, I'm just like looking at the different positions here.
Um, so I think like it's gonna be kind of related, right?
And so, conversely, The receiver group is really deep in the draft.
The edge group group is really deep in the draft.
And so, like that could cause some teams to push away from the table if the bidding gets out of control.
So I think as much as, and, and this has always been the case, like the draft is always married up with free agency and the way teams are looking at it, but I think even more so because Like both crops are kind of thin at certain spots, you know, so you have to look, OK, like, is it deeper here in free agency than it is in the draft?
Like, let's take care of this now.
And so with the Texans, like a lot of people are like, well, why did they go out and get David Montgomery?
I think David Montgomery is gonna cost them like 8 million bucks this year, right?
That could be half what Kenneth Walker, who they would have been in on, would have cost them, right?
So like, let's just take care of it now.
And, um, you know, the price was high, and I think it's fair to argue that.
But at least you have an idea of what you're getting in David Montgomery, you know, and you pair him with Woody Marks, and now that's not a need for you anymore in the draft.
So, I think, you know, like, like that's sort of where I'm at with a lot of these, um.
You know, I, I just, I, I think, you know, certain positions are gonna do well in part because the draft class isn't great, you know.
I think Kenneth Walker will do well.
I think Travis Etienne could get over 10 million a year.
You mentioned, you mentioned, um, you know, you mentioned Tyler Algier.
I mean, Rashad White, Rico Dowdell, like those guys could do pretty well, you know, because teams are looking at the running back class and saying, well, you know, if we're out of the range where we can get love, where love probably goes in the top 10.
Like, are we then in this like a Star and Price or boss territory?
It's a hard place to be.
Well, here's my take on it, and I guess I'll push back a little bit and just say this, like, um, Tyler Linderbaum has the ability, let's say he gets signed by someone like the, the, the Bears, for example, right, um, who just lost a hole now, right, right, we have a clear hole at center after, uh, Dahman retired , right, um, that has the possibility of changing the season, um.
Kyler Murray signing with the Vikings changes the NFL season.
Trey Hendrickson going, so you're saying sucks is the wrong word.
I think sucks is, well, because here, let me just go down a list, OK?
Trey Hendrickson going to the Bucks changes the outcome of the season to some to some degree.
Kenneth Walker going to a contender changes the outcome of the season.
The Chargers signing, I don't know, let's say Joel Batonio and Elijah Vera Tucker, that turns them in, does that not turn them into a Super Bowl contender?
I mean, I'm just saying that there's a lot of good players.
No, no, no, there are, there are, and I, I think it's just gonna be.
I mean this is what it's become though.
I think it's wise spending now.
It's not just spending, it's wise spending and it's who, who can you dig out that you think's gonna make it.
Like I look at the receivers and I think Romeo Dobbs could get close to 20 that sounds like a lot, but same as with Pierce, he's sort of a, he's a young ascending player, and you're not paying for what a guy was the last couple of years.
You're paying for what you think he can be.
So you look at that like Jundale Robinson.
Do you think he can be more than what he was in with the Giants, right?
Are you willing to pay $15 million to find out?
Um, there are all those sorts of things where it's like, you know, you can group together like 5 players and maybe one will hit.
The trick is gonna be knowing which one, you know, which I think makes free agency, even with guys who have track records a little bit more like the draft now, you know, like, like the, the, the later rounds of the draft where it's like.
How do you pick out the one guy of the five that are gonna go in this round at that position that's gonna make it?
Well, that's a skill, um, you know, another one, Adafe OA, who had a great finish the season for the Chargers.
Like, do you think that is that him ascending, or is that him just catching lightning in a bottle with a really good defense, you know what I mean?
Like I just think that there are all those sorts of questions and, um.
You know, I, I think of my two rules here, OK, and like these are really, I think these are like, these are the two things that I think, and you've heard me say this before, um, but there are two rules here like that I think that teams operate on that I really like that I've learned over the years.
One is why is the guy a free agent, right?
So like I explained it with Pierce, I explained it with John Franklin Myers, right?
Um, why is he a free agent?
Well, like, here's the reasoning.
If you can explain it.
Then great.
If there's not a great explanation other than the team was moving on, then buyer beware.
So that's number one.
Number 2 This is what I call the Alvin Harper Harper principle, OK, you, you like, for those who don't know, for our younger listeners who, for Connor, who was 5 when this happened, but, um, Alvin Harper was an electric downfield player in Norv Turner's offense in Dallas when they were winning championships, and he was the number 2 guy at his position.
Opposite Michael Irvin.
But really, when they broke the huddle, he was what, 4, right?
Probably behind Emmett, Irvin, and Novacek.
OK?
So, the Buccaneers, who were horrible at the time, they go out and sign him to a big contract.
I think it was when they had Trent Dilfer, they just drafted Trent Dilfer.
Here's our new number one receiver, Alvin Harper from the Dallas Cowboys.
Well, Alvin Harper never did much of anything.
And That principle is be careful about projecting someone's #2 into becoming your #1, right?
So it's like be careful about a guy who's a complimentary pass rusher.
Now he's the guy you're building a defense around.
Be careful about, about investing in.
The compliment in the, in the #2 corner, now you're, you're, you're relying on him to travel with the #1 receiver.
Be careful, the #2 receiver that you're projecting to be #1, the focal point of your offense.
Now, coverage is going to be going towards him rather than away from him.
You know, like, I think that's a really important principle when you're considering all of these guys cause generally, You know, Julio Jones wasn't a free agent until he was in his 30s.
I mean, like, like Miles Garrett is, is now going into his 30s, and he, uh, like those guys don't make it there.
So it's like there's that projection that you have to be really careful with too.
I, I, you know, it's one of those things where John Franklin Myers is a good example of it, right?
Like, so, and this worked out with Milton Williams for the Patriots last year, but John Franklin Myers is another example of it, where it's like, how much, like he was a really good player for them last year as an inside outside like defensive lineman.
But how much of that's a result of The offense is being more worried about Benito and Allen and, and, and Cooper, you know what I mean?
Yes, right.
Uh, I mean, if, if John Franklin Myers ends up with the Titans, he's gonna be fine, right, because Robert Salah knows him, work with him, you know, but if, if you go for the money, you just, you, you know, it's a potpourri to, you know, I don't know, I maybe this is like, I'm the NFL's target mark where it's like, I'm excited to see where Mike Evans goes.
And I think that Mike Evans, I'm the season, you know, please go to the Rams, by the way, Mike Evans.
I mean when I was a kid, I would get like I remember when free agency started when I was a kid like I would get really excited about it like and I , I was a, you know, I, I, this is why you love the draft because it's like teams are gonna be adding players to their rosters and things are gonna materially gonna change and we're gonna have months to analyze all of that.
I like that the excitement of that's great.
Like that's why everybody's gonna be locked in next week.
But, you know, like there's also an understanding of, of, well, here's what it actually is, you know, I mean, you know, what we could do at some point next week is maybe we pick, you know, I know our mutual friend Greg Rosenthal does one of these, take a top 100 list from like 2 or 3 years ago and see how many of those guys are still on the team.