Comparing Justin Jefferson's first 4 games to previous seasons and Randy Moss

Jefferson's catch totals are down a bit this season and that has everything to do with volume.

Sep 29, 2024; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) catches a pass near the sidelines during the fourth quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images / Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

Justin Jefferson has started the 2024 NFL season by ranking fifth in receiving yards, tied first with four touchdowns and his 17.9 yards per catch ranks fifth. If there's anything to take away from his start this season it's that his reception numbers are down compared to how he started the previous three seasons.

We compared his numbers through four games in all five of his NFL seasons and his 20 receptions so far this year is the lowest since his rookie campaign in 2020. His yardage is below what he produced in 2022 and way behind his electrifying start to last season, but there's an easy reason why.

Season	Catches	Yards	Touchdowns
2024	20	358	4
2023	33	543	3
2022	28	393	2
2021	26	338	3
2020	16	348	1

One easy answer for Jefferson's reduced receptions is because Sam Darnold has attempted just 106 passes through four games. Kirk Cousins attempted 157 passes in the first four weeks of the 2023 season. Why the huge difference? Because Minnesota is building giant leads whereas the 2023 Vikings were playing from behind and throwing the ball a lot more.

If you do the math, you'll find that Jefferson is catching 18.8% of Minnesota's pass attempts this season. He caught 21% of Cousins's pass attempts through four weeks last season, so his decrease in receptions is clearly linked to volume and nothing else.

The best four-game starts to a season in Randy Moss's time with the Vikings (1998 to 2005) were arguably in 2003 and 2004. In '03, Moss started the season with 24 catches for 434 yards and four touchdowns. In '04, Moss went off with 24 catches for 305 yards and seven touchdowns in four games to begin the season.

When Moss set an NFL record with 23 receiving touchdowns in 2007 with Tom Brady and the Patriots, he started that year with 31 catches for 505 yards and seven touchdowns.