Vikings-Bills Predictions: Who Wins This Week 10 Showdown in Buffalo?

It's hard to know exactly what to expect from Sunday's huge game between the Bills (6-2) and Vikings (7-1) in western New York until we know if Josh Allen is playing or not.

Allen, who practiced in a limited capacity on Friday, is listed as questionable with an elbow injury. If he plays, the Bills are maybe the best, most complete team in the NFL. He's one of the truly elite quarterbacks in the league, possessing a rare combination of size, athleticism, and arm talent. With Allen at QB, the Bills are 19-4 at home since the 2020 season, including playoffs.

If Allen can't play, 34-year-old backup Case Keenum would make just his third start since 2019 — and his first with the Bills. Keenum, as Vikings fans know, is more than your average backup. Still, the task of pulling off a road upset would become much easier for Minnesota if he's the one playing quarterback. We'll learn more about Allen's status as the game approaches.

One thing is for sure: even without a few key pieces in Jordan Poyer, Greg Rousseau, and Kaiir Elam, the Bills' elite defense will pose a major challenge for Kevin O'Connell and the Vikings' offense.

Prediction time. We'll start with my pick and then look at the predictions from various national analysts.

Will's pick: Bills 17, Vikings 16

2022 record: 7-1

If Allen plays, I'd expect the Bills to score more than 17 points. But even if he doesn't, Buffalo has enough talent on both sides of the ball to win this game anyways. Keenum and Stefon Diggs already have plenty of chemistry, and players like Von Miller, Matt Milano, and Ed Oliver make up a dangerous front for Leslie Frazier's defense. Could the Vikings win this game? Of course. O'Connell's team has been unbelievable at winning close games, doing so six times in a row. But this is as tough of a road environment as there is in the NFL, so I'll take the Bills to pull it out, whether Allen plays or not.

National predictions

SI MMQB: Only one of SI's five pickers, Conor Orr, is taking the Vikings to pull off the upset on the road.

Gregg Rosenthal, NFL.com: Bills 20, Vikings 17

I made this prediction assuming Josh Allen is out with his elbow injury. Buffalo could be without multiple key players on Sunday. Von Miller’s running mate, Greg Rousseau, is dealing with an ankle injury and the statuses of several defenders are up in the air. Yet I still believe the Bills can win in a bounce-back game. Case Keenum can get rid of the ball fast and take the quick profits that Minnesota’s defense gives up. Miller and the rest of Buffalo's defensive players will be up for the challenge of proving they can win a game on their own.

Bleacher Report Staff: Vikings 27, Bills 24

Mike Florio, PFT: Vikings 24, Bills 20

This pick is based on an educated guess that Josh Allen won’t play, and on a belief that the Minnesota offense is finding its groove, thanks to the T.J. Hockenson trade.

Michael David Smith, PFT: Bills 31, Vikings 17

The status of Josh Allen’s elbow may make me regret this pick, but as of right now I don’t see the Vikings playing a competitive game against a Bills team that will be eager to rebound from last week’s loss.

Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Bills 30, Vikings 20

This is the big game of the week. That could be trouble for Kirk Cousins, who hasn't played well in them. The Bills haven't looked great on offense in the last game and half, but that will change here if Josh Allen can play. Look for the Bills to get back on track. They win it big.

Mark Craig, Minneapolis Star Tribune: Bills 31, Vikings 28

Josh Allen either sits or plays through a tender throwing elbow. Either way, it's another stroke of good timing for a Vikings team that might lead the league in that area. Buffalo, however, is the best T-E-A-M in the league. Old friend Leslie Frazier has the NFL's best scoring defense. It struggled against the run in last week's loss to the Jets, but that will get straightened out thanks in part to everyone being refocused by an upset.

Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Bills 34, Vikings 24

The Vikings are feeling all that swag with Kirk Cousins delivering in Kevin O'Connell's offense. But their defense is teetering on leading to a second defeat for several games since Week 2 in Philadelphia. Josh Allen will fight through his elbow pain to raise his level of all-around play while his go-to wide receiver, Stefon Diggs, will have major revenge on his mind with replacement Justin Jefferson on the other side. The Vikings won't run enough early to attack the Bills, who can pick apart Patrick Peterson and their secondary.

Seth Walder, ESPN: Vikings 24, Bills 17

Eric Moody, ESPN: Bills 34, Vikings 24

What to watch for:

The Bills have won seven straight home games dating back to last season, all by double digits, but that streak will be on the line in a big way with the Vikings coming to town as winners of six straight one-score games. While the Bills will be hoping to bounce back after a tough loss to the Jets, they might be without

Josh Allen

(right elbow), who has not missed a game since 2018 and accounts for a league-high 82% of the Bills' yardage and 92% of their touchdowns. Backup

Case Keenum

has experience with

Stefon Diggs

from 2017 in Minnesota, including the "Minneapolis Miracle." —

Alaina Getzenberg

Bold prediction:

Justin Jefferson

and Diggs will combine for more than 300 receiving yards. Diggs, who has two 100-yard performances in his past three games, will be fired up to play against his original team. Jefferson is on a big roll, having racked up four 100-yard games in his past five. (He reached 98 yards the other time.) Be ready for a big display of receiving firepower. —

Kevin Seifert

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