Arch Manning Sizeable Favorite to be No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft on Kalshi

The legacy continues. Another Manning is favored to be drafted first overall in the 2027 NFL Draft. Arch Manning tops Kalshi’s No. 1 overall 2027 NFL Draft pick board entering his junior season at Texas.

Kalshi’s NFL Draft board has Manning listed at a 31% chance of being selected first in the 2027 NFL Draft, and the market hasn't budged since opening in late April.

2027 NFL Draft First Overall Pick - Kalshi

Arch Manning 31%
CJ Carr 17%
Dante Moore 13%
Jeremiah Smith 11%

This market is simple: if Arch Manning is selected first overall, it’ll grade as “yes.” A $10 trade on Manning going first in next year's draft profits $18.93.

Set for success

Scouts and analysts have linked Arch Manning to the No. 1 pick before even committing to Texas out of high school. Many projected him as the top pick in the 2026 draft before he chose to stay at Texas for another season.

Ahead of the 2026-27 college football season, Texas loaded up in the transfer portal to set Manning up for success.

The Longhorns signed a top-10 portal class highlighted by 5-star transfer receiver Cam Coleman. Coleman put up 708 yards and five touchdowns last season with arguably the worst QB play of any P4 team at Auburn. He is joined by 4-star running backs Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown, and fourth-ranked offensive tackle Melvin Siani.

Breakout incoming

While many are quick to downplay last season for Manning, it was only his first full year as the starter and he still managed top-30 numbers. Manning went for 3,163 yards, 26 passing touchdowns, and seven interceptions at a 78.0 QBR. He also added 399 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns.

With another full offseason of progression and the coaching staff filling in holes around him, an elite season worthy of the No. 1 pick feels almost inevitable.

Complimenting Markets

Strengthening his case at the top pick even further, Kalshi also offers a Top-5 market for next year's NFL Draft with Arch priced at 65%.

Players Drafted Top-5 in 2027 - Kalshi

Jeremiah Smith 79%
Dante Moore 67%
Arch Manning 65%

With Jeremiah Smith and Dante Moore locks on Kalshi at going top-5, they are real threats at being drafted first as well.

If you're looking for a promo code for Kalshi, enter SIBONUS at sign-up — you only need a $1 deposit and $20 in trades to unlock your $10 bonus.

Trading is risky, always trade responsibly. If your activity is becoming a problem, support is available by calling 1-800-522-4700.

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