Coco Gauff vs Karolina Muchova Kalshi Prediction Market for Wimbledon Semifinal

They’ve met on the hard court, they’ve met on clay, now they take their series to the lawn. Coco Gauff and Karolina Muchova meet for the eighth time at Wimbledon with a finals berth on the line and Kalshi has the market as close as it gets.

Kalshi’s Wimbledon market is dead even, as both Gauff and Muchova have a 50% chance to win their semifinal match and advance.

Karolina Muchova vs. Coco Gauff Wimbledon Semifinal - Kalshi

Karolina Muchova 50%
Coco Gauff 50%

On Kalshi and all other prediction markets, 50% is the break-even point, offering a 1:1 return. That said, a $15 trade on either Gauff or Muchova pays out $15.

No strangers to each other

Gauff leads the head-to-head 6-1. The pair have never played on grass. Three of their meetings are in 2026, where Gauff is 2-1. Muchova did capture her only win over Gauff in their last match at the Stuttgart Open in April.

This is also their first time meeting on grass. Coco conquered the hard court in the series, going 6-0, while Muchova’s only win came on clay.

They’re both historically streaky grass players, sitting under a 70% win rate on the surface. Gauff is slightly better at 69% (29-13) while Muchova has a 65% clip at a 30-16 record. However, they’ve completely turned things around in 2026.

After going 0-2 on grass in 2025, Gauff is 5-1 this season. Muchova improved from 2-1 to a stunning 10-1, even winning the Bad Homburg Open. Their current runs in Wimbledon mark the first time that either of them have reached the semifinals.

Props to watch

Set 1 winner

Coco Gauff 51%
Karolina Muchova 49%

Set 2 winner

Karolina Muchova 50%
Coco Gauff 50%

Coco’s path has been bumpy as she has dropped her last two opening sets in the round of 16 and quarterfinals. Muchova hasn’t lost a single opening set all tournament.

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