Connect Four: Big Ten Favored to Win College Football National Title Over SEC

Both the Big Ten and SEC have absolutely dominated the College Football Playoff era since 2014, and National Championship count since then as well amongst the other power conferences in the ACC and Big 12 and Notre Dame.

In addition to a market on which team will win the National Championship, Kalshi is offering a market on which conference will win the championship, with the Big Ten holding grasp on the highest percent.

Conference to win CFB National Championship - Kalshi

Big Ten: 47%
SEC: 28%
Any Other Conference/Independent: 12%
ACC: 7%
Big 12: 7%

This market offers a more broad option to choose from rather than a specific team. In this case, any team from the selected conference that wins the National Championship would win the market. Where they sit currently, the Big Ten is the overwhelming favorite at 47%.

Big Ten, SEC dominance

Since the start of the College Football Playoff selection era, the Big Ten and SEC have represented in nearly every showing. In the four team playoff era from the 2014-15 season to 2023-24, both a Big Ten and SEC team have simultaneously been in the playoffs in eight of the 10 seasons. The SEC has never missed the CFP.

In the two 12 team playoff brackets, seven SEC and Big Ten teams competed in the 2024-25 showing and eight in the 2025-26 edition.

As far as winning the National Championship, in 12 seasons since 2014, the SEC has won six National Championships while the Big Ten has won four. Alabama is responsible for three of the SEC’s titles in that span while Georgia is for two. Ohio State paces the Big Ten with two titles with Michigan and Indiana each adding one.

In recent seasons, each of the last seven National Champions have come from either the SEC or Big Ten with the SEC winning from 2019 to 2022 and the Big Ten winning the last three from 2023 to 2025.

Where things stand

The way the National Championship prediction board sits now, it is shaping out to be another SEC or Big Ten title with both Texas and Oregon listed as co-favorites to win at 12% each. Something interesting to point out though is that both Notre Dame and Miami come directly behind them ahead of teams like Ohio State, Georgia, and Indiana.

CFB National Championship Winner - Kalshi

Oregon 12%
Texas 12%
Notre Dame 11%
Miami 9%
Ohio State 9%
Indiana 9%

In the latest market update, Oregon moved up from 10% within the week to jump the Canes and Irish for the second-highest percentage on the board.

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