Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway Prediction Markets: McGregor Massive Underdog

It’s Time! Conor McGregor is back to highlight UFC 329 against Max Holloway. Despite the long-awaited return, prediction markets still heavily doubt him. He has gained some positive momentum ahead of the bout, though.

After Holloway opened as a 75% favorite to McGregor’s 25%, their prices on Kalshi’s UFC market shifted in opposite directions. Holloway is settled at 65% while McGregor jumped to 35%.

Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway UFC 329 - Kalshi

Max Holloway 65%
Conor McGregor 35%

At their trading prices, trading $10 pays $4.78 on Max Holloway if he wins and $17.3 on Conor McGregor.

Numbers backing Holloway

Any which way it’s looked at, Holloway is rightfully favored given his elite striking and McGregor’s decline through the latter part of his career.

Holloway averages an insane 6.91 significant strikes per minute, and all at 48% accuracy. He’s gone 4-2 in his last six, with two knockouts. Across his last six bouts, he landed all strikes about 50% in all but one bout, which was against Ilia Topuria, where Topuria knocked him out in the first round.

Looking at McGregor, he’s seen better days. He’s absorbing 4.66 significant strikes per minute at 46% accuracy from opponents. He’s been finished in three of his last four fights, and in all three losses, he allowed all of his opponents to land significant strikes at higher than 50% accuracy.

This is a recipe for disaster for McGregor, given his lack of defense and Holloway’s accuracy when the fight is upright.

Supporting props

Outside of just the flight lines, every major prop also screams Holloway win and an early finish by KO/TKO.

Max Holloway by KO/TKO/DQ

Yes 51%
No 49%

Will the fight go the distance?

22%
No 79%

Method of finish

KO/TKO/DQ 76%
Decision 22%
Submission 9%
Draw/No Contest 3%

UFC 329 is scheduled for Saturday, July 11. Early prelims begin at 5 p.m. EST with the main card at 9 p.m. on Paramount+

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