Duke Jumps Florida on College Basketball Kalshi Prediction Market

It was only a matter of time before Duke jumped Florida on college basketball prediction market boards. Duke pulled ahead of Florida on Kalshi thanks to key returning players and one of the nation’s top recruiting classes.

Kalshi’s college basketball market prices Duke at 13% and Florida at 11% as the top two teams on the board, and only two over 10%.

2027 College Basketball National Championship

Duke 13%
Florida 11%
Illinois 7.6
UConn 7.5%
Michigan 4.6%
Tennessee 4.6%

At their prices, trading $10 would profit $62.46 if Duke wins, while a Florida win profits $75.54. Over the last month, Duke has jumped and pulled away from Florida, with 2% being the widest gap on the board since the flip.

Duke continues building

In true Blue Devils fashion, Duke is bringing in a monster recruiting class through high school and the transfer portal, while welcoming back several key players from last season.

Duke has the second-ranked class nationally, highlighted by 5-star Cam Williams (PF) and center Joaquim Boumtje-Boumtje. Both rank as top-five national prospects. 4-stars Bryson Howard, Maxime Meyer, and Deron Rippey Jr. round out the class.

Duke made a splash in the transfer portal as well, signing guard John Blackwell from Wisconsin, the second-ranked player in the portal, who averaged 19.1 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 2.3 assists.

As far as returning players, Duke returns four of its top six scorers from last season, including Patrick Ngongba II, Caleb Foster, Cayden Boozer, and Dame Sarr.

Can Florida hold them off?

The Florida Gators are two years removed from their national championship and have kept their core intact through last season and into next season as well. All 10 of Florida’s returning players from last season were on the 2024-25 National Championship team, including:

Thomas Haugh
Alex Condon
Boogie Fland
Rueben Chinyelu
Urban Klavzar
Isaiah Brown
CJ Ingram
Alex Lloyd
AJ Brown
Viktor Mikic

Haugh, Condon, Fland, and Chinyelu were four of the top-five scorers from last season. The Gators didn’t land the same level of high-school or portal talent, but they did bring back one key transfer in Denzel Aberdeen.

Aberdeen was on Florida’s championship team as well before opting to transfer to Kentucky last season, where he averaged 13.5 points, 3.4 assists, and 2.5 rebounds. After one season at Kentucky, he transferred back to Florida, where he’s expected to start.

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