Dylan Cease Passes Cam Schlittler in AL Cy Young Prediction Market

And just like that, Dylan Cease passes Cam Schlittler on Kalshi’s AL Cy Young market after Schlittler had been the favorite for months. Cease now leads with 55% while Schlittler’s sits at 41%.

Cease took over as the favorite on August 6th with a 12% surge in his price from 43% to 55%. Schlittler’s price drop played a role as well, dropping 11% from 52%. Trading $10 profits $7.61 if Cease wins and $13.41 on Schlittler.

AL Cy Young Winner - Kalshi

Dylan Cease 55%
Cam Schlittler 41%

“Cease” the opportunity

Dylan Cease’s price has rocketed over the last two months, rising from just 8% in early April. On the season, he’s 7-5 with a 2.28 ERA (4th), 184 strikeouts (2nd), and 1.04 WHIP (9th) through 126.1 innings pitched. He’s allowed just 80 hits for 37 total runs.

He’s really taken over since July, though, with a 3-1 record allowing 17 hits, six runs (four earned), two home runs, 56 strikeouts, and an elite 0.84 ERA across 43 innings pitched.

Schlittler’s still strong

This is not a hit piece on Cam Schlittler at all. Cease’s elite production forced Kalshi to price him ahead of Schlittler. For the season, Schlittler’s totaled a 10-6 record, 2.26 ERA (3rd), 171 strikeouts (5th), and 0.95 WHIP (4th) through 139.2 innings pitched. All Cy Young caliber numbers.

While his numbers are premium, he has seen a step back since the beginning of July. In that span, he’s 2-1 and allowed 23 hits for 11 runs (11 earned), three home runs, 48 strikeouts, and a 2.77 ERA through 35.2 innings pitched.

It also doesn't help that the New York Yankees as a whole have struggled as of late. The Pinstripes are coming off a tough series loss to the St. Louis Cardinals and have lost five of their last eight games overall at the time of writing. The Yankees' World Series price on Kalshi dropped below 10% for the first time since April.

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