Fery Tale End: Zverev Massive Favorite on Kalshi vs Arthur Fery in Wimbledon Semis

From wildcard to semifinal. Arthur Fery’s run at Wimbledon is not only historic, but nearly improbable. He faces his toughest test yet in No. 3-ranked Alexander Zverev for a chance at the Wimbledon final. Kalshi heavily favors Zverev to end the run.

Fery vs Zverev - Kalshi

Arthur Fery 15%
Alexander Zverev 85%

Trading $10 on Fery at Kalshi’s Wimbledon market to pull off another upset pays $49 even. The same trade on Zverev offers just a $1.63 in profit if he wins the match.

Stats on grass

As the world No. 3, Zverev brings extensive grass experience -- a 54-25 record (68.4%) consisting of several Wimbledon and Halle Open appearances. His 2026 run on grass is also the best of his career at a 7-1 record (87.5%).

Fery’s grass record is weaker at 27-24 (52.9%), but he has surged in 2026 with a 10-3 mark after going 7-12 from 2023–2025

Paths to the semifinals

Zverev’s run is nothing short of dominant and expected from a player of his caliber. He defeated Alexander Blockx in the first round, Valentin Royer and Marcod Giron in straight sets in the second and third, Jiri Lehecka in four in the Round of 16, and in straight sets over Taylor Fritz in the quarterfinal.

Pushing the narrative of an improbably run, Fery opened the first four rounds with comeback wins in each of them. He dropped the first set in his opening three matches (Dzumhur, Virtanen, and Bergs) and trailed by two sets against Dimitrov before rallying in the Round of 16. He won in straight sets in the quarterfinal over no. 9 ranked Flavio Caboli.

Fery breaking history

Arthur Fery came into Wimbledon as far off of anyone's board as the #114 ranked player with only two Grand Slam main-draw wins.

Nonetheless, Fery is the first wildcard to reach the Wimbledon semis in 25 years. Goran Ivanisevic last accomplished this feat in 2001 and went on to win the final as the no. 125 ranked player. Fery is also the third-lowest-ranked player in the Open Era to reach the Wimbledon semifinal behind Ivanisevic and Vladimir Voltchkov (no. 237) in 2000.

He is also the first British wildcard to reach a Grand Slam semifinal in the Open Era, drawing royal attention when Queen Camilla attended his quarterfinal win over Cobolli. Even more amazing, he's from right around Wimbledon.

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