Home Run Debry Kalshi Prediciton Market Has Kyle Schwarber on Top

The fireworks for MLB All-Star Week in Philadelphia will reach a new height on Monday with the Home Run Derby. Kalshi lists hometown hero Kyle Schwarber as the favorite.

As the MLB’s home-run leader, Schwarber leads Kalshi’s Home Run Derby market. Junior Caminero sits just 2% behind.

2026 Home Run Derby - Kalshi

Kyle Schwarber 22%
Junior Caminero 20%
Munetaka Murakami 16%
Jac Caglianone 13%
Jordan Walker 11%
Bryce Harper 10%
Ben Rice 9%
Willson Contreras 6%

A $10 trade on Schwarber at 22% pays $33.09 if he wins. The same trade on Caminero offers $37.32.

The numbers

Schwarber leads the MLB in home runs this season, at 32, with a .252 batting average. Below are each player's home run totals this season as well as their batting averages:

Kyle Schwarber: 32 home runs, .254 average
Junior Caminero: 28 home runs, .279 average
Munetaka Murakami: 20 home runs, .232 average
Jac Caglianone: 15 home runs, .260 average
Jordan Walker: 22 home runs, .294 average
Bryce Harper: 20 home runs, .260 average
Ben Rice: 29 home runs, .279 average
Willson Contreras: 20 home runs, .285 average

Favorites

This is Schwarber’s third Derby, tying him for the most appearances with Bryce Harper giving him the experience edge over most of the field to go with his home-field advantage. His recent form casts some doubt though, with just two home runs in July and his most recent coming on July 8.

Caminero finished as the runner-up in the 2025 Home Run Derby and comes in with five home runs on the month with July 10th being his last score.

Sleepers

Ben Rice ranks second on the board in home runs and is steaming with six homers in July off 14 hits in 39 at-bats.

Jordan Walker is a solid play as well with the highest batting average of the field. In 44 at-bats this month, he has 15 hits for four home runs.

Another hometown favorite, Bryce Harper, has the experience edge having won the 2018 Home Run Derby. His biggest thing to note coming in is that in 40 at-bats this month, he’s recorded just six hits and no home runs.

Home Run Derby rules

Each of the eight players in the first round is allowed 20 swings each with the top four home run totals advancing to the semifinals.

The semifinals move to a head-to-head format with No.1 vs. No. 4 and No. 2 vs. No. 3. Each player gets 15 swings.

In the final round, each player gets 15 swings as well, with a three-swing swing-off breaking ties.

There are some rule changes for the 2026 derby with the most notable being the swing limit format. Batters won’t have a time limit either. Every swing counts toward the total, whether it’s a home run or not. Bonus swings are awarded if a player hits a home run on their final allowed swing and will continue swinging until they fail to hit a home run.

The Home Run Derby is scheduled for Monday night at 8 p.m. from Citizens Bank Park in Philly on Netflix.

New users can enter the Kalshi bonus code SIBONUS at registration to earn a $20 welcome bonus on one of the top-rated prediction market apps available today.

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