Indiana Bears No More? Kalshi Points to Chicago Stay

After several reports and speculation that the Chicago Bears may relocate out of Illinois, recent reports now suggest a new stadium deal to keep them in the Prairie State is expected. In line with reports, Kalshi’s NFL market heavily leans toward the Bears staying in Illinois at 82%.

Prior to the season, the Bears were favored to move to Indiana at 53%. However, as negotiations between the organization and state officials continued, their price to stay in the state shot up on the board. Kalshi settles the market on whether the team officially announces its plans to relocate by the start of the 2028 season. A $10 trade that the Bears stay in Illinois profits $2.03.

Chicago Bears relocation - Kalshi

A new location in Illinois 86%
Indiana 17%
Do not relocate 2%
Iowa <1%

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Illinois coming together

Negotiations between Bears team officials and state officials have progressed to the point that a vote in the Illinois legislature could come as soon as November on a new stadium outside Chicago in Arlington Heights.

It’s been reported that NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell and Bears owners Pat Ryan and George McCaskey joined discussions with state officials, advancing the talks.

Under the potential stadium deal, it would allow municipalities to operate stadiums financially as well as exempt them from paying property taxes. One of the main reasons the Bears looked to relocate is the state's high property tax rate, which has held them back from redeveloping Soldier Field and surrounding areas.

John Boyd, a principal of the real estate brokerage firm, Boyd Company, suggested that Illinois is closing in on a deal to retain the Chicago Bears.

“I think sometimes the tortoise beats the hare,” said Boyd. “I think maybe that’s what we are seeing here with this new package that is set to be voted on pretty soon in the Illinois legislature to keep the Bears in Illinois–the Bears will be responsible for stadium construction, but this model removes the expensive and uncertain and unpredictable property tax component.”

The state’s legislative session runs from November 17 to December 3. Lawmakers are expected to vote on the new stadium before the session ends.

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