Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff Kalshi Market Points Toward Clear Favorite

Kalshi continues to serve Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff as they shift up the board with the quarterfinals up next. Naomi Osaka knocked out pre-tournament favorite Aryna Sabalenka in the fourth round.

Sabalenka’s exit plus Pegula and Gauff reaching the quarterfinals pushed both Americans up Kalshi’s Wimbledon board.

Women’s Wimbledon Singles - Kalshi

Naomi Osaka 22%
Jessica Pegula 17%
Marta Kostyuk 13%
Madison Keys 13%
Coco Gauff 12%
Karolina Muchova 12%

Both Pegula and Gauff are offering serious plus money payouts should they win. Trading $10 offers $45.58 on Pegula and $68.46 on Gauff.

Pegula gets over the grass hump

After a streaky 59.32% win rate on grass (35-24), Jessica Pegula has silenced the grass doubters, matching her 2023 Wimbledon best and reaching the quarterfinals. 2026 has been her best year on grass to date with a 6-1 record at the time of writing.

She’s been on fire throughout the tournament, winning in straight sets in the first three rounds before losing her first set in the fourth round to Iva Jovic. Her price surged from 7% to 17% in 24 hours.

Gauff continues to squeeze by

While Gauff is also trending up on grass, she has scraped through Wimbledon so far. She opened winning straight sets against Tamara Korpatsch. She followed that by winning the first set against Solana Sierra and Claire Liu before dropping the second. Against Belinda Bencic in the fourth round, she dropped the first set.

With the quarterfinals also being her best Wimbledon performance, she’s seen her price double from 6% to 12%.

Jessic Pegula vs. Coco Gauff Quarterfinals - Kalshi

Pegula 59%
Gauff 41%

Pegula and Gauff now face each other in the quarterfinals with Kalshi heavily leaning on Pegula to advance. Given the circumstances and Pegula winning in straight sets all but once, and Gauff losing a set in her last three, Pegula has a 55% chance to win the first set and 56% to win the second.

They’ll face off on Tuesday, July 7th at 8:30 a.m. EST

Use the Kalshi promo code SIBONUS when you sign up to unlock a $20 bonus after making a qualifying deposit and completing just $10 in trades.

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