Jon Rahm Leaving LIV Kalshi Prediction Market Spikes After Latest Report

Most of the latest reports strongly suggest Jon Rahm is departing from LIV Golf, and Kalshi’s LIV Golf market agrees as his price to compete in a Q1 LIV tournament plummets. LIV Golf officials are also reportedly preparing for his departure.

Rahm now sits with just a 21% price to play in a Q1 LIV Golf tournament and a 94% price to sit out. His price to play dropped significantly, going from 67% in early August down to 34% a week later, and now at its lowest point since opening.

Will Jon Rahm compete in a 2027 Q1 LIV Golf Tournament?

Yes 21%
No 94%

Kalshi settles the market on whether or not Rahm competes in a Q1 LIV Golf tournament between January 1st and March 31st. A $10 trade on Rahm not playing profits just $.58 while a trade on him playing pays out $37.32.

Rahm all but out of LIV

All signs are pointing towards the LIV Golf Championship in Indianapolis being Jon Rahm’s last appearance in the league.

One report that came from the X account Tee Times states that Rahm and the PGA Tour agreed on a deal in recent weeks. It also mentions that he’d need to pay $25 million in fines as well as an “apology tour” similar to Brooks Koepka's upon his return to the tour. He also won’t be eligible for signature events unless he pays his way into them. A subsequent report from Golf Diget's Joel Beal said those reports were inaccurate/premature.

Other related reports suggest that while Rahm’s first choice is to return to the PGA Tour, officials would force him to pay a higher fine than Koepka and issue a public apology. Eamon Lynch of Golfweek wrote about the expected terms.

“Rahm’s obvious first choice for life after LIV would be returning to compete on the PGA Tour. He lives in the U.S., and it’s the most lucrative, competitively demanding and commercially relevant circuit. But no one around the Tour thinks Rahm will be offered the terms Koepka accepted, and many believe he’d be asked to pay stiffer financial penalties, accept restricted playing privileges and perhaps even apologize (for what, and to whom, is unclear).”

Rahm signed a $300 million deal to join LIV back in 2023. Reports say the league still owes him a nine-figure payout on his contract. The Saudi Public Investment Fund announced that it would no longer support the league financially. LIV Golf CEO Scott O’Neil recently stated that the league reached an agreement with a separate investor.

Use the Kalshi promo code SIBONUS when you sign up to unlock up to a $500 bonus after making a qualifying deposit and completing just $25 in trades.

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