Kalshi NBA Championship Prediction Market Ahead of Season Opener

We are under one week out from the NBA regular season, and Kalshi’s NBA Championship market is solidifying its preseason favorites. The Oklahoma City Thunder sit atop the board at 23%, with the San Antonio Spurs just behind at 22%.

Both the Thunder and Spurs are the only two teams with a higher than 15% chance to win, with only the Philadelphia 76ers above a 10% chance to win behind them. A $10 trade profits $31.21 on the Thunder and $33.09 on San Antonio.

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Staying put

Since the market first opened, the Thunder and Spurs have remained at the top of the board. The Spurs opened as favorites at 21%, with the Thunder at 20%. Through the offseason, both of their prices have inched higher, but the Thunder took over the top spot.

The Thunder have now been to the playoffs in three straight seasons after missing it the three years prior. They’ve capitalized on winning the franchise's first NBA Championship in 2025 and had a run to the Western Conference Finals last season.

The Spurs made the playoffs last season for the first time since the 2018-19 season and made their first NBA Finals appearance since 2013-14. Although they lost to the New York Knicks, a promising sign ahead of this season.

East is not for the weak

The Eastern Conference will be an all-out bloodbath this season. The Philadelphia 76ers are only getting stronger after adding LeBron James, the Knicks are running it back with their championship squad, and the Miami Heat jumped into contention after adding Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Outside of the top contenders in the conference, the Boston Celtics always remain a threat as long as Jayson Tatum is healthy, and the Indiana Pacers are back in position as well after Tyrese Haliburton missed all of last season with a torn Achilles.

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