Lincoln Riley Fired Market on Kalshi

USC head coach Lincoln Riley has been a name to watch on the hot seat all season. However, Kalshi’s CFB coaches fired market has slightly backed off despite the Trojans’ most recent loss and what lies ahead. Kalshi currently gives Riley a 60% chance of getting fired this season.

Riley had a 67% chance of being fired in early October, which fell to 17% before the loss to Wisconsin last week. Now, after the loss, his price surged back up to 60%. Kalshi grades the market on whether Riley is still with USC come February 1. A $10 trade that he’s fired by then profits $6.20.

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Time to move on?

While there have been several exciting moments in USC football since Riley’s arrival in 2022, he has not lived up to the standard that the program was hoping for. He has a 41-20 record to this point, with a 2-2 bowl record, and has never led the Trojans to the College Football Playoff.

USC came into this season with high expectations as the No. 14-ranked preseason team. However, with two losses in its last four games, the playoffs are out of the question. Especially considering the road ahead against No. 2 Ohio State, No. 4 Indiana, and No. 7 UCLA to finish the season.

Offense has never been the issue for Riley at USC, having finished as a top-10 offense in the conference over the last three seasons. It’s been the defense holding them back, especially this season, where they’re allowing 25 points and over 330 yards per game.

How much would it cost to fire Lincoln Riley?

If USC were to fire Riley, it would be one of the most expensive buyouts this season. He signed a 10-year, $110 million contract in 2021. If USC fired him now, reports say the school would still owe him an estimated $57–$72 million.

College football insider Josh Pate recently noted that his buyout is what stands in the way of being let go right now.

“I think they want to. I think the buyout thing is maybe or maybe not prohibitive, but that’s kind of what stands in the way,” Pate said. “I don’t think Lincoln Riley has a ton of supporters at USC–I’m talking about inside the walls of the athletic department, the folks that matter.”

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