Luis Arraez Trade Market Spiking on Kalshi as Giants Sink

One man's loss is another man's gain, and the San Francisco Giants are definitely the losers here as they continue to look for a trade partner for Luis Arraez. A trade is almost certainly inevitable on Kalshi, with Arraez leading the list of names potentially being traded.

Kalshi’s MLB trade market has Arraez listed at an 83% chance of being traded. His price has stayed above 55% all season and now sits at its second-highest position

Will Luis Arraez be traded?

Yes 83%
No 18%

The value is minimal here with a profit of $1.90 on a $10 trade. The deadline for this market is August 5th, which is two days after the trade deadline. Kalshi will then grade it based on if he’s traded or not.

Cautious pre-trade demand

Multiple contenders are chasing him. Especially given his expiring $12 million deal makes him a pure rental with zero long-term risk.

Although Arraez doesn’t have a no-trade clause in his deal, his recent comments could scare off some buyers. Speaking with MLB.com, the second baseman made it clear that he is unwilling to transition to first base.

“This is a business, so whatever team wants to give me the opportunity to help, it's going to be at second base,” Arraez said. “I don't like to go back to first base; I prepared my mind, I prepared my body to only play second base. One hundred percent, I’m staying at second.”

Headed to the Bronx?

The New York Yankees keep surfacing as one of the top suitors. Especially considering the current state of injuries they’re facing, and the fact that they’re staying afloat on World Series markets.

ESPN’s Buster Olney urged the Yankees to pull the trigger immediately on the Baseball Tonight podcast, calling him the “perfect guy to add right at this moment.”

“Brian Cashman, the anchor general manager, should get on the phone with the San Francisco Giants and basically not let Buster Posey off the phone until he makes a deal for Luis Arraez. Like to me, he is the perfect guy to add right in this moment. He’s having a terrific year. He’s batting .326. We’ve heard about his investment in defense this year, working with Ron Washington.”

Olney noted Arraez’s .330 average and said batting him behind Aaron Judge would torment pitchers even more.

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