NL Big Favorite Against AL in Kalshi Prediction Market

The 96th annual MLB All-Star Game is scheduled for Tuesday in Philadelphia at Citizens Bank Park. Kalshi favors the National League over the American League.

The AL has dominated the last 10 All-Star Games, winning eight of them. However, the NL has gained momentum, winning two of the last three and boasting a star-studded roster that has driven its price higher on Kalshi’s MLB market.

MLB All-Star Game: NL vs. AL - Kalshi

Moneyline: NL (56%) vs. AL (44%)
Spread: NL -1.5 (39%)
Total: 7.5 (Over 54%)

Trading $10 on the outright winner of the game, a $7.01 profit is made on the NL while $11.86 is offered on an AL win.

Trends to watch

The AL has won 14 of the last 19 All-Star Games dating back to 2006. That includes winning eight of the last 10. However, the momentum could be shifting, with the NL having won two of the last three.

The under has cashed in 65% of the last 20 meetings with an average total of 7.1 runs. The 7-6 finish last year was the second-highest total that the game has seen in that frame. In more recent years, the under has hit in four of the last six.

On the spread, 15 of the last 20 games have been decided by two runs or fewer, with nine (including three of the last four) being decided by a single run. Both of the NL wins in the last three years have been single-run wins.

The rosters

Both rosters are stacked, but the NL’s edge comes from stars like Juan Soto. Note that Shohei Ohtani will not play for the NL due to his lingering knee injury and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Byron Buxton, and Aaron Judge are all out as well on the AL roster.

NL starters

C: Drake Baldwin (Braves)
1B: Freddie Freeman (Dodgers)
2B: Ozzie Albies (Braves)
3B: Max Muncy (Dodgers)
SS: CJ Abrams (Nationals)
OF: Brandon Marsh (Phillies)
OF: Juan Soto (Mets)
OF: Andy Pages (Dodgers)
DH: Kyle Schwarber (Phillies), replacing Ohtani

NL starting pitchers

Paul Skenes (Pirates)
Chase Burns (Reds)
Jacob Misiorowski (Brewers)
Cristopher Sánchez (Phillies)
Chris Sale (Braves)
Logan Webb (Giants)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Dodgers)
Eduardo Rodríguez (Diamondbacks)

AL starters

C: Shea Langeliers (Athletics) – 1st
1B: Willson Contreras (Red Sox) or Nick Kurtz (Athletics)
2B: Ernie Clement (Blue Jays) – 1st (AL vote leader)
3B: Junior Caminero (Rays) – 2nd
SS: Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals) – 3rd
OF: Mike Trout (Angels) – 12th
OF: Riley Greene (Tigers) or Randy Arozarena (Mariners)
OF: Cody Bellinger (Yankees) (replacing Aaron Judge)
DH: Yordan Alvarez (Astros) – 4th

AL starting pitchers

Dylan Cease (Blue Jays)
Parker Messick (Guardians)
Drew Rasmussen (Rays)
Joe Ryan (Twins)
Cam Schlittler (Yankees)
Ranger Suárez (Red Sox)
Michael Wacha (Royals)

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