Everything Kalshi & Polymarket Are Telling Us About the NBA Finals After Game 1

The New York Knicks took Game 1 over the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA Finals | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

The New York Knicks handled their business in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, going into Frost Bank Center and beating the San Antonio Spurs to take a 1-0 lead and extend their current win streak to 12 games.

Following the Knicks' road win in Game 1, prediction markets had a field day in adjusting their chances to win the finals overall, the NBA Finals MVP market, and the lines for Game 2.

NBA Finals Winner - Kalshi 

• New York Knicks 53%
• San Antonio Spurs 47%

NBA Finals Winner - Polymarket

• New York Knicks 53%
• San Antonio Spurs 47%

New York now sits with a 53% chance to win the NBA Finals, which is the highest percentage, meaning that they are now the favorites. With a 53% chance of winning on each market, payouts are similar, meaning a $10 risk on the Knicks to win could profit $7.92. The same $10 risk would profit $10.51 if the Spurs win.

The Game 1 swing

Starting with Kalshi’s NBA Finals market, the Spurs went into the series as the favorite to win the title, with their percentage sitting at 59.6% while the Knicks sat with 40.1%. After Game 1, things quickly shifted to the Knicks on June 4th, to 53% compared to the Spurs 47%.

The NBA Finals market on Polymarket saw a slightly bigger swing with the Spurs going into the series at 64% to the Knicks 36.1% before swapping to 53% in favor of New York and 47% to San Antonio.

Brunson tops Wemby in Finals MVP market

The race to win the NBA Finals MVP continues to be largely a two-man competition between Jalen Brunson and Victor Wembanyama. However, Brunson took over the top spot in the market, passing Wemby who was the pre-series favorite. 

NBA Finals MVP - Kalshi

• Jalen Brunson 48%
• Victor Wembanyama 44%

NBA Finals MVP - Polymarket

• Jalen Brunson 47%
• Victor Wembanyama 44%

Both Brunson and Wembanyama had MVP-worthy performances in Game 1. Brunson finished scoring 30 points, 3 rebounds, and 2 assists, and a +6 margin whenever he was on the court. Wembanyama went for 26 points, 12 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, and 3 blocks. 

The markets for the Finals MVP saw an even bigger shift than the series price market. Wemby was a strong 56.9% favorite over Brunson’s 34% on Kalshi. Polymarket was similar with Wembanyama at 62% to Brunson at 30.1% just one day before the finals started. 

Game 2 market 

With Game 1 in the books, the market for Game 2 is now live with Polymarket and Kalshi listing the Spurs as 6.5-point favorites on the spread. The point total is set at 215.5 on Polymarket and 214.5 on Kalshi.

Compared to the Game 1 lines, markets are doubling down on the Spurs as even bigger favorites in Game 2.

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