Scottie Scheffler Big Favorite to Win Open Championship at Kalshi Prediction Market

Scottie Scheffler debuts at Royal Birkdale as the heavy favorite to win the 2026 Open Championship and the only golfer above a 10% chance to win on Kalshi.

Rory McIlroy isn't far off, sitting close behind at 9.7% on Kalshi’s Open Championship market. Each is looking to capture their second Open Championship win.

2026 Open Championship Winner - Kalshi

Scottie Scheffler 12%
Rory McIlroy 9.7%
Matt Fitzpatrick 5%
Tommy Fleetwood 4.6%
Jon Rahm 4%

Trading $10 on Scheffler to win offers value at a $68.46 profit. The same trade on Rory to win offers $86.90.

History playing in the Open Championship

Both Scheffler and Rory have Open Championship wins to their names. Scheffler returns as defending champion after going 17-under in his 2025 victory. Rory also won at 17-under in 2014.

Scheffler could become the first player since Padraig Harrington in 2007-08 to win back-to-back Opens and the first American player since Tiger Woods in 2005-2006.

This is only Scottie’s sixth Open appearance, having finished top-25 in each of his first five. As for Rory, this is his 16th appearance at the Open Championship, having finished top-10 eight times (including in three of his last four).

At Royal Birkdale specifically, Scheffler’s never played here while Rory has once at the 2017 Open Championship finishing T4 and five under.

The road leading up

Scottie and Rory, the top two world ranked golfers in that order, come in playing as expected. Scottie brings 14 top-25s this season, including nine top-5s, two thirds, four runner-ups, and one win at The American Express. He is coming off a surprise cut at the Genesis Scottish Open last weekend.

Rory comes in with seven top-25 finishes, including four top-10, a second, and a first place finish at the Masters. Unlike Scheffler, Rory finished T7 and 12 under at the Genesis.

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