Tarik Skubal Trade Prediction Market Trending Down

What goes up must come down, and that is exactly what’s happening to Tarik Skubal’s trade market. Following Kalshi’s confidence in Skubal being moved, the market has backed off, with his price now favoring him staying put.

Skubal looked like a near lock to get traded, sitting at over 70% on Kalshi’s MLB trade market. He’s since come down to under 50%.

Will Tarik Subal be traded? - Kalshi

Yes 45%
No 60%

Kalshi settles the market on whether Skubal is traded before August 5. Trading $10 here would profit $12.34 if Skubal is moved and $6.74 if he stays with the Tigers.

State of the Tigers

The Detroit Tigers surged to finish the first half of the season, going 9-3 across their last 12 games and scoring 6+ runs in seven of them. The hot streak has lifted them to a 44-52 record, sitting 6.5 games out from first place in the AL Central and 3.5 games back from competing for a Wild Card spot.

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, Detroit sits in a favorable position to add on to its momentum with four of the upcoming five series coming against teams well under a .500 record.

Diving into the Tigers' price to make the playoffs on Kalshi, they sit at 27%, which is 13% behind the Boston Red Sox at 40%, who are the last qualifying team on the board. The Tigers are trending up on that board as well, rising from the 4% they sat at at the start of June.

Case for Skubal staying put

If this were over a month ago, there’d be no case for Detroit not to trade Skubal, who becomes a free agent after this season. Given the current state of the Tigers over the last month, analysts weigh in on why they shouldn't move him. ESPN’s Buster Olney came out saying they should not trade him.

“No, they should not because of the trend that they’ve been on over the last month and a half. Since the beginning of June, they are 22-14. That's a 99-win pace, and they’ve made up a lot of ground in the standings. They’re 3.5 games out of the race for the Wild Card,” Olney said. “If the Tigers get into the postseason, they could do some damage. They could be like the Texas Rangers of 2023, who went on to win the World Series. I think the Tigers should add rather than trade Skubal away for value.”

The Tigers have until Monday, August 3rd at 6 p.m. EST to decide whether or not to trade Skubal.

Use the Kalshi promo code SIBONUS when you sign up to unlock a $20 bonus after making a qualifying deposit and completing just $10 in trades.

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