USA Prediction Market Favorite Against Belgium on Kalshi

Will the American Dream live on Monday Night Futbol? Kalshi narrowly says yes, as they favor the United States to outlast Belgium and advance to the quarterfinals.

Between the United States’ hot streak and the game-changing decision to reverse Folarin Balogun’s red card, Kalshi’s World Cup price saw some major movement ahead of kick-off.

USA vs. Belgium Round of 16

To Advance: USA (53%) vs. Belgium (48%)
Reg. Moneyline: USA (37%) vs. Belgium (36%), Draw (29%)
Reg. Spread: USA -1.5 (19%)
Reg. Total: 2.5

Make note that the regulation time markets only cover the first 90 minutes and stoppage time of the match, and not any overtime play or penalty shots.

On the prices to advance, a $10 trade on the United States profits $8.26 if they advance. The same trade on Belgium offers $10.08 profit.

Major decision leads to price movement

In the USA’s Round of 32 win over Bosnia, striker Folarin Balogun received a red card after unintentionally stepping on the ankle of a Bosnian defender. After FIFA suspended him for the Belgium match, officials took another look and suspended the decision, clearing the way for him to play on Monday.

Belgium opened as a 51% to 49% favorite before the decision to reverse the red card. Following the call, the U.S. jumped 4% to 53% while Belgium fell 3%.

Where the numbers sit

On paper, match stats are pretty even with some shade towards the USMNT. The U.S. is slightly outscoring Belgium 10-9 through four matches. The United States also has two clean sheets to Belgium’s one.

Belgium is getting by with one close call after another, with two draws and a 120’+5’ goal to save it in a 3-2 win over Senegal in the Round of 32. Belgium trailed 2-0 until the late stages of that match.

The U.S. is rolling with all three of its wins coming by 2+ goals. Remember, the only loss against Turkiye came with a heavy rotation as they had already won the group at that point.

Seeking revenge

This is not the first time that the United States and Belgium have met in the World Cup and in the Round of 16 as well. In the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, Belgium defeated the U.S. 2-1, where current forward Romelu Lukaku and midfielder Kevin De Bruyne scored both times. Both will suit up on Monday night.

Kick off is set for 8 p.m. EST on FOX from Lumen Field in Seattle.

Use the Kalshi promo code SIBONUS when you sign up to unlock a $20 bonus after making a qualifying deposit and completing just $10 in trades.

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