USA Soccer World Cup Chart Trending Up on Kalshi Prediction Market

The Americans are coming! The Americans are coming! The USMNT is surging on Kalshi. Its chances to win the 2026 World Cup jumped after two straight wins.

The United States has a 5% chance to win the World Cup, which is good for the ninth-best spot on the board. They sit directly behind Germany.

2026 World Cup Winner - Kalshi

France 19.9%
13.9%
England 12.7%
Argentina 12.2%
Netherlands 7.1%
Portugal 6.9%
Brazil 5.7%
Germany 5.7%
USA 5.2%

There is tremendous upside on Kalshi’s World Cup market for the United States with a $10 stake offering just over a 17x return of $171.39 if they win the tournament.

Early Group D victors

Two wins have already clinched top spot in Group D and sent the USMNT into the knockout stage. They won as 47% favorites over Paraguay and 62% over Australia.

Clinching the group was Paraguay’s 1-0 win over Turkiye, which is 0-2 in the group stage. The USMNT will face Turkiye on Thursday.

How the USMNT proceeds with Turkiye

With the U.S. already advancing and Turkiye eliminated, it makes Thursday’s match irrelevant, yet risky. Folarin Balogun, Tyler Adams, Antonee Robinson, and Chris Richards all have yellow cards, with another for either forcing a one-match suspension. That said, the U.S. could use this as an opportunity to rotate its lineup and rest its starters.

Potential semifinal path

A favorable bracket is boosting U.S. chances to at least the semifinals. An early group stage win places powerhouses in Morocco, Netherlands, Norway, Brazil, and Germany on opposite sides of the bracket.

With how the bracket currently looks, the USMNT will match up with Bosnia, the third-place finish in Group B in the Round of 32. In the Round of 16, either New Zealand or Czechia would be on deck. In the quarterfinal, one of DR Congo, Ghana, Uruguay or Austria would be the likely opponent.

Market movement

U.S. chances have steadily climbed from 1% at the start. It jumped to 3% following the win over Paraguay and now to 5% with the shutout over Australia.

Use the Kalshi promo code SIBONUS when you sign up to unlock a $10 bonus after making a qualifying deposit and completing just $10 in trades.

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