The USWNT’s Road to the 2023 Women’s World Cup Final Just Got a Lot Rockier

While it was a rocky and often painstaking group stage, the U.S. women’s national team is through to the knockout stage at the 2023 Women’s World Cup. 

The path to the Aug. 20 final in Sydney became much more difficult after the USWNT finished with its lowest point total in a World Cup group stage. The second-place finish behind the Netherlands means that instead of meeting the Group G runner-up (most likely between Italy, South Africa and Argentina), all signs point to a round-of-16 showdown with Sweden.

Sweden, ranked third in the world according to FIFA rankings, currently sits atop Group G with six points after a 5–0 thrashing of Italy. The chances of Sweden not winning the group are minuscule; Sweden would need to lose against Argentina in the final group game Wednesday while Italy would need a win against South Africa and would have to erase a goal-differential divide that currently stands at 10 goals (Sweden +4, Italy -6). A 6–0 Italy win and a 5–0 Sweden loss would just barely do the trick. 

The USWNT and Sweden last met in April 2021 when the two sides settled for a 1–1 friendly draw in Stockholm. The women’s soccer titans also shared a group in the ’19 World Cup as the U.S. topped the group after a 2–0 win—the U.S. would go on to win the title, while Sweden finished third. Sweden’s previous appearance in a major tournament came in a semifinal defeat at the ’22 Women’s Euros to eventual champion England.

If the USWNT survives its round-of-16 encounter with the Swedes, which it will have to do without the suspended Rose Lavelle, a meeting with either Japan or Norway awaits in the quarterfinals. After shocking Group C favorite Spain with a 4–0 drubbing Monday, Japan topped the group, while Norway advanced to the knockouts only on goal differential after finishing tied on points with New Zealand for second in Group A. 

The most probable quarterfinal opponent is Japan, which the U.S. defeated, 1–0, in February at the SheBelieves Cup. However, the U.S. would be missing its lone goalscorer from that match in Mallory Swanson, who scored four of the team’s five goals in the cup. 

If the U.S. makes the semifinal, the odds point to either a potential rematch with the Netherlands (last week’s group-stage match ended in a 1–1 draw) or a meeting with World Cup contender Spain, which took down the USWNT in a 2–0 friendly win last October. Group A winners Switzerland and the Group G runner-up are also possible opponents for the semifinals. In terms of the final, England (if it qualifies Tuesday) still remains the favorite on the other side of the bracket, which also features contenders like Australia along with France (if it qualifies Wednesday).

For USWNT fans, the biggest impact of a second-place finish doesn’t have anything to do with potential knockout opponents; rather, it has to do with time zones. The USWNT added two potential early-hour wake-up calls to any fans hoping to watch in the U.S. with Sunday’s round-of-16 match starting at 5 a.m. ET (instead of at 10 p.m. Saturday if it won the group). 

Meanwhile, a potential quarterfinal appearance will now kick off at 3:30 a.m. ET on Friday, Aug. 11 rather than a 10 p.m. Thursday kickoff. The semifinal and final remain the same for the USWNT with a 4 a.m. ET and 6 a.m. ET kickoff.