Mexico’s Road to 2026 World Cup Final After Thrilling Round of 32 Win

El Tri are chasing their maiden World Cup title after a perfect start on home soil.

Raúl Jiménez sealed Mexico’s win over Ecuador in the round of 32. | Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Mexico is walking in dreamland after punching its tickets to the round of 16, the next step on the long journey to a potential first-ever World Cup final appearance.

Javier Aguirre’s men secured a 2–0 victory over Ecuador in front of a home crowd to emphatically snap their 40-year drought without a World Cup knockout victory. Now that the curse is broken, suddenly anything seems possible for a team with four wins in as many matches in this summer’s tournament.

El Tri made it past South Africa, South Korea and Czechia in the group stage, turning doubters throughout Mexico into believers. La Tricolor presented a much greater test, but even they stood no chance going up against the host nation at the biblical Estadio Azteca.

The competition is only getting harder as the knockout stage progresses, and Mexico’s route to the World Cup final has some of the competition’s best teams standing in the way.

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Round of 16

Harry Kane is England’s all-time World Cup scorer. | Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated

The match is set for the round of 16. Mexico will host England on July 5, with a trip to the quarterfinals on the line. Harry Kane and Co. will make the journey to the Estadio Azteca for what promises to be a thrilling battle.

The Three Lions secured a 2–1 comeback win over DR Congo to punch their tickets to Mexico City, where Aguirre’s men have yet to concede this tournament.

For an England side struggling with creativity, playing in such a hostile environment against a formidable defense makes what could be a lopsided match all the more even.

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Quarterfinals

Vinicius Jr (left) has taken over for Neymar as Brazil’s talisman. | Image Photo Agency/Getty Images

Should Mexico make it past England, it will meet either Brazil or Norway in the quarterfinals. The Seleção are the favorites to progress from that round of 16 clash, but either side is loaded with attacking firepower that El Tri would have hoped to avoid.

The prospect of facing Vinicius Junior or Erling Haaland is somewhat of a lose-lose situation for the host nation, but the good news is both potential opponents have had their stumbles already in the tournament, proving they are by no means infallible.

Mexico, meanwhile, would be coming off a massive win at home against England, giving El Tri all the confidence they need on July 11 at Hard Rock Stadium.

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Semifinals

Lionel Messi is chasing a second World Cup title. | Roberto SCHMIDT/AFP/Getty Images

Should Mexico make it to the semifinals, it would be the country’s best-ever World Cup finish. Aguirre’s men will surely not be satisfied with top four, though; they will be gunning for a place in the final.

Standing in their way could be any of the following nations: Argentina, Cape Verde, Australia, Egypt, Switzerland, Algeria, Colombia or Ghana. The favorites are, of course, the reigning world champions.

Argentina and Mexico clashed at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, and the result was a 2–0 victory for Lionel Scaloni’s side. La Albiceleste also eliminated the Concacaf nation at the 2006 World Cup and the 2010 World Cup.

There would be no better time for El Tri to break the trend than in Atlanta on July 15.

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Final

France is looking like the best team at the 2026 World Cup. | Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated

If Mexico makes its first World Cup final, then it will have a mountain to climb to lift the ever-elusive golden trophy. El Tri will likely have to best France or Spain in pursuit of glory.

Les Bleus, led by the Kylian Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé and Michael Olise, have looked unstoppable so far, winning all four of their matches and scoring 13 goals along the way. It would be unwise to count out La Roja, though, when Lamine Yamal exists.

Mexico will be the underdogs going against either European powerhouse, but anything can happen over the course of 90 minutes. Still, the host nation would much rather go against the following foes on July 19 at MetLife Stadium: Canada, Morocco, Paraguay, Portugal, Croatia, Austria, USMNT, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Belgium or Senegal.

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