Potential Punishments for Iran if 2026 World Cup Withdrawal Threat Is Formalized

There is no modern-day precedent for how FIFA will respond.

Iran was the third team to qualify for the World Cup this summer. | Michael Regan-FIFA/Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu/Getty Images

Twelve days after the U.S. first launched airstrikes on Iran, killing supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Middle Eastern nation announced its intent to withdraw from the FIFA 2026 World Cup, a tournament co-hosted by the U.S.

“Considering that this corrupt regime ⁠has assassinated our leader, under no circumstances can we ​participate in the World Cup,” Iran’s sports minister Ahmad Donyamali said on state television Wednesday, as quoted by Reuters.

“Our children are not safe and, ​fundamentally, such conditions for participation do not exist. Given the malicious actions they have carried out against Iran, they ‌have ⁠forced two wars on us over eight or nine months and have killed and martyred thousands of our people. Therefore, we certainly cannot have such a presence.”

Iran—the third nation to qualify for this summer’s showcase—will be the first team since 1950 to announce its World Cup withdrawal post-qualification, meaning there is no modern-era precedent for how FIFA, world soccer’s organizing body, will respond or the punishments it will impose on Iran.

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Will Iran Face Punishments from FIFA?

Iran could owe millions to FIFA. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Should Iran officialize its withdrawal, the condition and severity of Iran’s punishment comes down to how the withdrawal is classified. If FIFA considers the withdrawal to be a result of “force majeure,” a French phrase denoting extraordinary or unforeseeable events, then the punishment may be lessened or entirely absolved “at the sole discretion” of FIFA, according to the organization’s regulations handbook for the World Cup.

A “force majeure” classification seems likely for Iran, given the U.S.’s major combat operation is entering its third week of regional violence and continued airstrikes on Tehran.

President Donald Trump’s most recent social media post, which overtly places the safety of the Iranian players in question, may be the nail in the coffin for a “force majeure” denotation and actually work in Iran’s favor.

“The Iran National Soccer Team is welcome to the World Cup, but I really don’t believe it is appropriate that they be there, for their own life and safety,” Trump posted to Truth Social on Thursday.

Although extreme, FIFA could reschedule or relocate one or more of Iran’s matches “for any reason at its sole discretion, including as a result of force majeure or due to health, safety or security concerns,” meaning Iran could potentially play its three U.S.-based group stage matches in Mexico or Canada instead, the other two co-hosts of the tournament.

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What Punishments Could Iran Face?

Iran has competed in the last four consecutive World Cup tournaments. | AFP/Getty Images

If Iran’s withdrawal is not deemed “of force majeure,” Iran will be fined at least $316,605.25 by the FIFA Disciplinary Committee if the withdrawal comes no later than 30 days before the first match of the tournament. If it comes fewer than 30 days prior, Iran will be fined at least twice that amount.

Iran would also be responsible for reimbursing the organization for all team preparation money, which amounts to $1.5 million, and any other “tournament-related contribution payments” they received.

Financial repercussions aside, Iran could face expulsion from subsequent FIFA competitions. The organization also reserves the right to replace Iran with another association for the tournament. Iraq is currently deemed the most likely replacement as the highest-ranked Asian nation not qualified.

Iran is currently scheduled to open play in Group G at Los Angeles Stadium, facing New Zealand on June 15 and Belgium on June 21. The squad would then travel to Seattle to play Egypt on June 26.

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