Three Potential Replacements for Iran at 2026 World Cup

Iran’s sports minister has declared that the nation cannot participate in a tournament cohosted by the United States “under any circumstance.”

Iran’s minister of sport has ruled the country out of the World Cup. | Michael Regan-FIFA/Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu/Getty Images

When Iran secured qualification for this summer’s World Cup in March 2025, the major concern revolved around how the nation’s fans would be able to attend the tournament in the United States in the face of a travel ban. Now it appears the players won’t be there either.

12 days after the first air strike on Iran was launched by the U.S. military, Iran’s sports minister Ahmad Donyamali declared: “Under no circumstances can we ​participate in the World Cup.”

No qualified nation has pulled out of a men’s World Cup since 1950. When France and India withdrew due to the excessive cost of traveling to Brazil (rather than any myth about playing barefoot), FIFA simply plowed forward with two fewer teams.

That is theoretically an option again this summer, leaving Group G as a unique trio of Belgium, Egypt and New Zealand. Yet, the commercial demands would hardly allow for three fewer games and there are still three months until the competition kicks off. The final six spots at the 48-team tournament won’t even be decided until the playoffs are conducted during March’s international break.

FIFA’s regulations leave plenty of wiggle room in the unlikely event of withdrawal, ensuring that Iran’s decision has created a vacuum of uncertainty.

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1. Iraq

Iraq could still qualify for the 2026 World Cup. | TIBA SADEG/Middle East Images/AFP/Getty Images

Iran booked a ticket to the World Cup by finishing top of its group during a needlessly complicated Asian qualifying system. Iraq was the best-performing team from the continent that has not actually made it to the tournament, although qualification is still achievable with one win in the inter-confederation playoff set for March 31.

Iraq was set to play the winner of Bolivia and Suriname in that playoff final. Should the side led by Australian coach Graham Arnold be given a ticket straight to the finals, presumably the playoff spot would be transferred to one of Bolivia or Suriname.

Only once before has Iraq qualified for the men’s World Cup. Back in 1986 the wonderfully named Lions of Mesopotamia went home after a grueling group stage which brought three defeats and one solitary goal scored.

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2. United Arab Emirates

UAE could be given a lifeline. | TIBA SADEG/Middle East Images/AFP/Getty Images

Iraq qualified for the inter-confederation playoff by defeating the United Arab Emirates across two legs in November 2025. After drawing 1–1 in Abu Dhabi, the UAE took the lead in the decisive second leg before eventually falling to a 2–1 defeat thanks to a penalty in the 17th minute of second-half stoppage time.

It remains to be seen whether a decision on Iran’s replacement is made before the inter-confederation playoffs. Should Iraq qualify through that method, The Guardian report that the UAE would be the most likely beneficiary.

Much like Iraq, the UAE have only ever been to one previous World Cup, bowing out of the group stage in 1990 without collecting a point.

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3. Lucky Loser

Bolivia beat Brazil in World Cup qualifying. | AIZAR RALDES/AFP/Getty Images

There is a third option for FIFA to lean upon.

In the scenario where Iraq qualifies through the playoffs, FIFA may deem that Iran’s replacement need not necessarily be another representative of Asia and simply award that place to one of the losers from the inter-confederation playoff mini-tournament in Mexico next month.

This isn’t the most logical next step, but soccer has never been bound by straightforward decision-making. FIFA themselves declared that they have “sole discretion” to “take whatever action is deemed necessary.”

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