Ranking the Four Teams Left in the 2026 World Cup

Four former champions can be split into two clear categories in this inviting set of semifinals.

France is a strong contender to go all the way. | Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated

“There is no such thing any more as favorites,” England boss Thomas Tuchel declared as the World Cup was whittled down to just four remaining sides.

Rather than any veiled jibe at his own team, Tuchel was making the argument that there are such fine margins to separate nations at this stage of the competition, any could feasibly win it. All four semifinalists have won the tournament before (some more recently than others), theoretically bolstering his claim.

However, most would argue that the draw can be clearly divided into two halves: a pair of proper contenders and two sides who have scrambled their way into the final four in entirely unconvincing fashion. The challenge of separating those duos is far tougher.

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4. Argentina

Argentina has been anything but convincing. | Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated

Group Stage: Algeria (3–0), Austria (2–0), Jordan (3–1)
Round of 32: Cabo Verde (3–2)
Round of 16: Egypt (3–2)
Quarterfinal: Switzerland (3–1)

Resilience or recklessness? Competitive spirit or chronic complacency? This knockout stage version of Argentina is a beast of contradictions which has still somehow managed to force its way through to a second semifinal in succession.

Lionel Messi didn’t score against Switzerland but everything once again went through the diminutive maestro. And, much like the skittish Egypt victory, it was game rife with controversy. Let’s just say that Hossam Hassan’s staunch belief that the competition has been tilted in Argentina’s favor won’t have shifted after another nervy outing.

Never assume conspiracy when incompetence will suffice. If FIFA really did want Messi in the final again, they haven’t let Argentina’s porous rearguard in on the grand plot.

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3. England

Bellingham once again appeared when England needed him most. | Roberto Schmidt/AFP/Getty Images

Group Stage: Croatia (4–2), Ghana (0–0), Panama (2–0)
Round of 32: DR Congo (2–1)
Round of 16: Mexico (3–2)
Quarterfinal: Norway (2–1)

The message for England heading into the quarterfinal with Norway was clear: Release the handbrake. Instead, Thomas Tuchel’s side stalled and spluttered its way through one of the team’s most underwhelming performances of the summer. As the German manager freely admitted, they were “lucky” to escape with a 2–1 win after extra time.

After the giddy euphoria of the Estadio Azteca victory, which was a feat of in-game management, Tuchel seemed to be haphazardly cycling through his substitutions. Some worked—Djed Spence once again shone in a cameo role—others emphatically didn’t: Eberechi Eze’s replacement of Declan Rice irrevocably gutted England’s midfield. If there was a plan, it certainly wasn’t clearly successful.

While some may expect England’s fortune to soon run out, Harry Kane viewed the arguably undeserved progression as a positive.

“We are in the semifinals of a World Cup not having played our best football,” the Three Lions captain argued. “If we can find it in Wednesday’s game, it could be the difference between winning and losing this tournament.”

Fortunately for England, Wednesday’s semifinal is against an Argentina side which is perhaps even more dysfunctional.

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2. Spain

Mikel Merino scored the decisive goal to send Spain to the World Cup semifinals. | Kohjiro Kinno/Sports Illustrated

Group Stage: Cabo Verde (0–0), Saudi Arabia (4–0), Uruguay (1–0)
Round of 32: Austria (3–0)
Round of 16: Portugal (1–0)
Quarterfinal: Belgium (2–1)

Spain may not have electrified the competition with its calculated current style of play but Luis de la Fuente is a manager trying to win matches rather than any hearts and minds.

Lamine Yamal isn’t fully fit, Nico Williams may as well not have turned up and even Pedri’s untouchable status has been punctured. Yet, Spain has taken a measured march towards the semifinals without much trouble.

The reigning European champion is yet to trail this summer and has only failed to win one match in normal time: an opening goalless draw with Cabo Verde. Considering how well the surprise package of the tournament fared over the subsequent weeks, that result has aged excellently.

For all Spain’s restrain, it would only take one signature performance from Yamal to ignite the entire campaign and accelerate the team’s steady progression.

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1. France

Kylian Mbappé is a force to be reckoned with. | Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated

Group Stage: Senegal (3–1), Iraq (3–0), Norway (4–1)
Round of 32: Sweden (3–0)
Round of 16: Paraguay (1–0)
Quarterfinal: Morocco (2–0)

Given the talent at Didier Deschamps’s disposal, he admitted that it may appear “logical and natural” for France to find itself in a third consecutive World Cup semifinal. However, as he was quick to point out: “You still have to achieve it.”

Rarely has any team achieved that feat with such flair.

Since a dozy first half against Senegal in its opening match of the tournament, France has romped through the rest of the competition. Heading into that inviting semifinal showdown with Spain, Les Bleus have scored eight goals since they last conceded one this summer.

Thanks to the industry of the buzzing electrons around Kylian Mbappé, France has managed to retain its defensive structure without following the familiar Deschamps approach of playing a third midfielder rather than a fourth forward.

“My credit goes to the players,” the evolved manager beamed, “but maybe I do my job well.”

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