Seven Predictions for the 2026 World Cup Group Stage

There are more nations and matches than ever before in the initial phase.

The USMNT, alongside co-hosts Canada and Mexico, will hope to hit the ground running. | Omar Vega/USSF/Getty Images

The 2026 World Cup group stage will truly be like no other following FIFA’s expansion of their flagship tournament.

For the first time ever, 48 nations will compete in the 12-group opening round, with 72 matches staged across an 17-day period. The schedule is relentless.

With any luck, more matches will equal more drama. While only a third of participants exit the tournament at the group stage, there is still room for narratives and chaos aplenty as the fixtures come thick and fast.

Here are seven of Sports Illustrated’s predictions for the World Cup group stage.

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Home Advantage Pays Dividends

Mexico have hit form at the perfect moment. | Agustin Cuevas/Getty Images

Group stage matches will be spread across North America this summer. The majority will be staged in the United States, where the USMNT will unsurprisingly take to the field, but there is plenty of action unfolding in Canada and Mexico, too.

That means three nations will benefit from home advantage, a factor which has often proven decisive at past tournaments. Only twice in competition history have hosts failed to make it beyond the first round—South Africa in 2010 and Qatar in 2022.

Courtesy of eight third-placed countries also progressing to the knockout stage, the USMNT, Canada and Mexico should all make it into the last 32, especially considering their place as Pot 1 sides in last December’s draw means they have relatively straightforward groups.

The boost provided by an army of supporters on home soil is unmatched.

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Neymar Makes His Mark

Neymar has stolen attention pre-tournament. | Wagner Meier/Getty Images

Much of the focus surrounding Brazil has concerned Neymar, whose inclusion in Carlo Ancelotti’s Brazil squad has caused quite the stir. Debates rage over whether the 34-year-old deserves his spot, while a nagging calf injury threatens his involvement during the group stage.

However, while the Brazilian playmaker appears unlikely to feature in the opener with Morocco, he should play some part in subsequent games against Haiti and Scotland. Those appear promising opponents against which the veteran can strut his stuff one last time on the World Cup stage.

If Neymar is nursed back to health, he could play a definitive role for Brazil as they seek to top Group C. The Santos star has seldom failed to deliver in yellow and green.

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Germany, Netherlands Struggle

The Netherlands has never won the World Cup. | ANP/Getty Images

Germany and the Netherlands enter the tournament as former heavyweights given an outside chance of clinching the title. The former has fallen on hard times over the past decade and is a shadow of past title-winners, while the inconsistent Dutch have never won the World Cup and lack star power in their attack.

What makes life more awkward for the European duo is their groups. While they will undoubtedly reach the knockout rounds, finishing first is no guarantee.

For Germany, debutants Curaçao should prove no issue, but overcoming an in-form Ecuador side and talented Ivory Coast team will be tough. The South Americans conceded just five times in 18 qualification matches and came second despite being docked three points, while the likes of Yan Diomande, Amad Diallo and Ange-Yoan Bonny will star for the African giants.

The Netherlands arguably have it even tougher. Japan enters the tournament in incredible form and are one of the competition’s undeniable dark horses, especially after beating Spain and Germany in Qatar four years ago. Sweden came through the playoffs, but have the attacking weapons to hurt anybody on its day, while Tunisia kept clean sheets in all 10 of its qualification matches and drew with Brazil in November.

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France Top ‘Group of Death’

France are among the favorites. | Loic VENANCE/AFP/Getty Images

France undoubtedly finds itself in the tournament’s ‘Group of Death’. Drawn against a mightily impressive Senegal team and Erling Haaland’s Norway, Les Bleus will be pushed to their limits from the off in North America—although their second group game against Iraq should prove simple.

Despite Senegal and Norway both being considered as genuine candidates to upset the established order and make deep runs into the knockout stage, France should still throw its significant weight around to top Group I.

Its fearsome attack contains the likes of Kylian Mbappé, Michael Olise and Ousmane Dembélé, with a star-studded defense and midfield offering support. Didier Deschamps boasts unrivaled depth and will lean on the breadth of his squad in warm conditions in North America.

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Argentina, Spain, Portugal Ease to First Place

Defending world champions Argentina have a relatively easy group. | RONALDO SCHEMIDT/AFP/Getty Images

Defending champions Argentina should immediately hit its stride having been handed an easily navigable group containing Austria, Algeria and Jordan, but it’s not the only behemoth likely to stroll to first place.

Spain, the reigning European champions, might find life slightly awkward against Uruguay, but convincing victories over Cabo Verde and Saudi Arabia are projected. Portugal faces a similar path, an uncertain clash with Colombia eased by very promising games against DR Congo and Uzbekistan.

The trio should rarely be forced to escape second gear in their pursuit of top spot in their respective groups. Clinching first should—on paper, at least—hand the giants easier last 32 matches, ensuring it’s important to to claim gold rather than silver or bronze.

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Harry Kane Puts One Hand on Golden Boot

Harry Kane has been unstoppable over the past year. | Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire/Getty Images

England is seeking to end its 60-year drought in the World Cup and will be reliant on captain and talisman Harry Kane to achieve the feat. The 32-year-old is the tournament’s most in-form and devastating forward, producing an astonishing 61 goals for Bayern Munich across the 2025–26 season.

While England is not expected to blow opponents away in the group stage with high-scoring victories, Kane’s ruthlessness can set him on the path to the Golden Boot—a prize he won back in 2018 despite heartbreak in the semifinal. Games against Croatia, Panama and Ghana will aid his bid for another award.

Ghana’s decision to sack its manager 72 days before the World Cup could benefit Kane, as could Panama’s leaky defense which shipped six to Brazil in a pre-tournament friendly. Even Croatia is not as formidable as it once was.

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Debutants Flounder

Uzbekistan is making its first appearance. | IMAGO/Sebastien Frej

Four nations are making their debuts at the 2026 World Cup: Cabo Verde, Curaçao, Jordan and Uzbekistan. An unforgettable summer awaits for their players, staff and supporters, but their participation may be brief.

Even with the crutch of a third-placed finish possibly being enough to reach the knockout phase, none of the minnows are expected to progress.

Cabo Verde’s only hope is to best Saudi Arabia and clinch third, while Uzbekistan is in a similar predicament as it eyes DR Congo as the only side it could genuinely finish higher than.

Curaçao should get no change from a group boasting Germany, Ecuador and Ivory Coast, while Jordan appears unlikely to earn a first World Cup win against Argentina, Austria or Algeria.

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