Supercomputer Predicts Champions League Winner After Chaotic Round of 16 First Legs

A bruising matchday for English clubs has shaken up the rankings.

Real Madrid were among the big winners from the first legs. | Maria Jimenez/Real Madrid/Getty Images

With 32 goals shared around eight games, the first legs of the 2025–26 Champions League round of 16 will live long in the memory.

Fans of Premier League clubs may be doing their best to forget a bruising round of fixtures, with Arsenal’s late equalizer away at Bayer Leverkusen the best it got after Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City all suffered humbling defeats.

On the flip side, the celebrations will still be ongoing in mainland Europe. Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain lived up to their billings as pre-tournament favorites, while Real Madrid’s emphatic return to form proved that magic really is in the air when the Champions League anthem bellows around the Bernabéu.

After a chaotic two days of action, here’s how the Opta supercomputer is feeling about every team’s chances of victory.

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Supercomputer Predicts Champions League Winner

Bayern Munich ran riot against Atalanta. | Fabrizio Carabelli/SOPA Images/LightRocket/Getty Images

We’ve got a new leader at the top of the standings, with Bayern Munich now backed as the favorites to win the 2025–26 Champions League.

While nobody has ever doubted the credentials of Vincent Kompany’s side, their 6–1 mauling of Atalanta was stunningly impressive even before you factor in the absence of 45-goal superstar Harry Kane. To think they still have more in the tank is terrifying.

Arsenal, given the best chance of winning after the draw for the last 16 was made, have tumbled down to second after a thoroughly uninspiring 1–1 draw away at Bayer Leverkusen ended their perfect run of victories in this competition.

Club	Chances of Winning
Bayern Munich	26.34%
Arsenal	22.07%
Barcelona	12.10%
Paris Saint-Germain	10.17%
Real Madrid	8.34%
Atlético Madrid	6.14%
Liverpool	4.64%
Newcastle	2.63%
Man City	2.27%
Bodø/Glimt	2.15%
Bayer Leverkusen	0.99%
Galatasaray	0.85%
Chelsea	0.76%
Sporting CP	0.50%
Tottenham	0.05%
Atalanta	0.00%

There’s a little drop down to the next teams in the rankings. Barcelona’s odds of winning have actually increased since the fixtures were set, although they will have to improve from their 1–1 draw with Newcastle United if they are to go all the way in this competition.

One of the biggest stories of the first legs was Real Madrid’s thumping triumph over Man City. It served as a reminder as to why you can never rule Los Blancos out on the European stage and it has actually quadrupled their odds of winning, although at just 8.34%, there is clearly little faith that Álvaro Arbeloa’s side will be able to maintain it.

Atlético Madrid are one of the teams to have one foot in the next round already after capitalizing on a comedy of errors from Tottenham Hotspur en route to a 5–2 victory. They come in narrowly behind their city rivals.

A 1–0 defeat away to Galatasaray has seen Liverpool’s chances of winning tumble down to just 4.64%, but that’s still higher than both Newcastle and Man City. Pep Guardiola’s side are given a 2.27% chance of overturning a three-goal deficit against Real Madrid and going all the way.

The supercomputer is doing its best to believe in the Bodø/Glimt fairytale. The Norwegian side thumped Sporting CP 3–0 as they continued collecting scalps, but a 2.15% chance of winning suggests they will come crashing back down to earth eventually.

Now we drop down to the teams below 1%. Bayer Leverkusen sit marginally ahead of Galatasaray, who can feel hard done by here as one of the teams who actually won their first leg. Chelsea, Sporting CP and Tottenham are all given microscopic odds, but the supercomputer has given up on Atalanta already.

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Champions League Round of 16 Fixtures

Second Leg	Team Most Likely to Advance
Sporting CP vs. Bodø/Glimt (0–3)	Bodø/Glimt (86.73%)
Arsenal vs. Bayer Leverkusen (1–1)	Arsenal (78.07%)
Chelsea vs. PSG (2–5)	PSG (92.96%)
Man City vs. Real Madrid (0–3)	Real Madrid (82.95%)
Barcelona vs. Newcastle (1–1)	Barcelona (68.15%)
Bayern Munich vs. Atalanta	Bayern Munich (99.96%)
Liverpool vs. Galatasaray (0–1)	Liverpool (51.36%)
Tottenham vs. Atlético Madrid (2–5)	Atlético Madrid (96.68%)

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