Supercomputer Predicts Champions League Winner After Dramatic Quarterfinal First Legs

Four clubs already have one foot in the next round of Europe’s top competition.

PSG are on track to retain their title. | Xavier Laine/Getty Images

We’re halfway through the quarterfinals of the 2025–26 Champions League, which threw up plenty of drama, controversy and excitement wherever you looked.

Reigning champions Paris Saint-Germain ran right through Liverpool to claim an advantage, while Arsenal managed to escape from Sporting CP with a slender 1–0 lead to keep their hopes of a famous double alive.

While Premier League sides struggled in the last 16, the misery went to La Liga in the quarterfinals. Real Madrid have a mountain to climb after a 2–1 home defeat to Bayern Munich and Barcelona need another famous comeback after losing to Atlético Madrid.

The cogs of the Opta supercomputer have been whirring in the aftermath, determining its favorite to go all the way and lift Europe’s most famous trophy.

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Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Champions League Winner

Arsenal will fancy their chances of victory. | Alex Pantling/UEFA/Getty Images

There may not have been anything special about Arsenal’s win over Sporting, but the Gunners’ relentless ability to win games makes them incredibly tough to look past.

Mikel Arteta’s side sit top of the rankings here, given a 36.32% chance of getting their hands on the trophy at the end of the season.

The biggest threat to Arsenal’s hopes of European glory is likely to come from Bayern Munich, who finished second in the league phase behind the Gunners. Vincent Kompany’s outfit boast a 28.90% chance of being crowned champions.

After those two sides, there is a drop down to third, with the supercomputer making it clear that anything other than victory for Arsenal or Bayern would come as a significant surprise. Holders PSG, given a 16.01% chance of winning, may have something to say about that.

Atlético Madrid’s hopes of a surprise triumph were obviously boosted by their 2–0 win over Barcelona. Diego Simeone’s side are overwhelming favorites to advance to the semifinals but are given just a 9.27% chance of going all the way.

Still, that is higher than Barcelona, whose hopes of winning the Champions League have plummeted to 3.57%.

Team	Chances of Winning
Arsenal	36.32%
Bayern Munich	28.90%
PSG	16.01%
Atlético Madrid	9.27%
Barcelona	3.57%
Real Madrid	2.64%
Liverpool	2.09%
Sporting CP	1.20%

Real Madrid will have to hope their famous well of magic is not dry following their last-16 triumph over Manchester City. Needing to overturn a one-goal deficit against Bayern leaves them with just a 2.64% chance of victory.

Liverpool, meanwhile, have seen their odds slashed to just 2.09%, which many Reds fans may argue is actually somewhat generous given their recent trajectory. Manager Arne Slot admitted they were lucky to escape only two goals down from their first leg against PSG and will need Anfield at its best to will the team on to a comeback next week.

Sitting at the bottom of the standings are underdogs Sporting CP. The supercomputer believes there is just a 1.20% chance of overall victory for the Portuguese giants, whose odds of making it through to the next round are barely much higher despite only being one goal down against Arsenal.

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Champions League Quarterfinal Fixtures

Second Leg	Team Most Likely to Advance
Atlético Madrid vs. Barcelona (2–0)	Atlético Madrid (79.98%)
Liverpool vs. PSG (0–2)	PSG (84.66%)
Arsenal vs. Sporting CP (1–0)	Arsenal (91.64%)
Bayern Munich vs. Real Madrid (2–1)	Bayern Munich (86.92%)

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