Supercomputer Predicts 2025–26 Champions League Winner As Last 16 Teams Set

A new Champions League winner has been predicted for this year’s tournament.

The Champions League trophy is up for grabs once again. | Vince Mignott/MB Media/Michael Regan-UEFA/UEFA/Alexandra BEIER/AFP/Jean Catuffe/Eric Verhoeven/Soccrates/Getty Images

Thomas Tuchel once described the Champions League as “the most beautiful competition but the most difficult competition that we play.”

The wily German manager got his hands on the big-eared trophy in 2021 after inheriting Frank Lampard’s Chelsea side, one year after watching his Paris Saint-Germain team laced with the likes of Neymar Jr. and Kylian Mbappé lose the final.

Predicting any football game is a testing task but trying to second-guess every bounce of the ball in a knockout competition at the mercy of the fates like the Champions League is even more difficult. Opta have taken on the daunting challenge of parsing through the tea leaves. At least the competition has now been whittled down to the final 16 teams.

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Supercomputer Predicts There Will Be New Winner in 2025–26

Arsenal are chasing their first ever Champions League title. | Jacques Feeney/Offside/Offside/Getty Images

Arsenal are expected to upset the apple cart this season. The Gunners may never have won the competition and have seen their mentality questioned with each passing week back in the Premier League. But they have been imperious on the continent thus far this season.

Mikel Arteta’s side topped the league phase table with a perfect record of eight wins from eight without trailing for a single second. Even Tottenham Hotspur boss Igor Tudor has hailed Arsenal as the “best team in the world.” Bayern Munich’s only blemish in European competition this term was a reverse at the Emirates Stadium in November yet they remain a formidable foe.

Vincent Kompany is able to call upon one of the most prolific players in the competition, Harry Kane, and the Champions League’s leading assist provider, Michael Olise. No wonder their stock is high.

Intriguingly, the Premier League pairing of Manchester City and Liverpool are the next two most likely winners. As they demonstrated in their thrilling top-flight meeting earlier this month, both recent champions possess their own flaws which is why neither currently sit top of the domestic league table. However, in the context of two-legged knockout ties, both have the quality to go deep.

Rank	Team	Chances of Winning Champions League
1.	Arsenal	29.45%
2.	Bayern Munich	14.56%
3.	Man City	13.42%
4.	Liverpool	10.44%
5.	Chelsea	6.69%
6.	Barcelona	6.16%
7.	PSG	4.27%
8.	Newcastle	3.94%
9.	Real Madrid	3.90%
10.	Sporting CP	2.08%
11.	Tottenham	1.67%
12.	Atlético Madrid	1.39%
13.	Bayer Leverkusen	0.78%
14.	Atalanta	0.71%
15.	Bodø/Glimt	0.29%
16.	Galatasaray	0.25%

These chances will undoubtedly alter once Friday’s draw is conducted. Whatever ball gets drawn out, Barcelona, Chelsea, Newcastle United and Paris Saint-Germain face a difficult test.

The four clubs have seen their aspirations dented by an unfortunate pairing; defending champions PSG are only given a 4.27% chance of retaining their title chiefly because they will face one of Barcelona or Chelsea in the last 16. The team out of Barça or the Blues who avoids the French giants will be paired with a Newcastle fresh from racking up nine goals across their two-legged playoff victory over Qarabağ.

Record European champions Real Madrid are considered to be even less likely to win the Champions League for a 16th time than Newcastle—which ignores their illustrious reputation on the continent. As Pep Guardiola once warned: “Real Madrid are the kings of this competition.”

Tottenham don’t boast that kind of European history and their modern reality is even more grim. Despite finishing fourth in the league phase table, Spurs are only given a 1.67% of claiming top spot by the end of May.

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Supercomputer Predicts How Champions League Knockout Stages Will Play Out

Bayern Munich are major contenders. | Alexander Hassenstein/Getty Images

Most Likely Quarterfinalists

This is where the identity of each club’s immediate opponents becomes crucial. Arsenal are considered to be heavy favourites whether they face Atalanta or Bayer Leverkusen, much like Bayern Munich, who will play the half of this pairing not drawn against the Gunners.

Liverpool and Spurs find themselves indelibly linked to one of Atlético Madrid or Galatasaray. The two Premier League sides are favourites to come through these particular ties, but they will surely be testing affairs. Gala rattled in seven goals across two legs against Juventus while Atlético are always a challenge—although in a different way this year.

Diego Simeone’s once defensively resolute outfit has become remarkably porous. Atléti shipped 15 goals in eight league phase games, four more than Cypriot team Pafos. Club Brugge notched up another four goals in the playoff round but were downed by the capital club’s prolific frontline.

Real Madrid extended their 23-year record of reaching the Champions League round of 16 but aren’t among the most favourites to qualify for the quarterfinals. Somehow Sporting CP slip ahead of Álvaro Arbeloa’s side in that regard.

Team	Potential Round of 16 Opponent	Likelihood of Reaching Quarterfinal
Arsenal	Atalanta or Bayer Leverkusen	85.67%
Liverpool	Atlético or Galatasaray	76.93%
Bayern Munich	Atalanta or Bayer Leverkusen	76.05%
Man City	Real Madrid or Bodø/Glimt	75.27%
Tottenham	Atlético or Galatasaray	56.90%
Chelsea	PSG or Newcastle	54.67%
Barcelona	PSG or Newcastle	53.97%
Sporting CP	Real Madrid or Bodø/Glimt	52.95%

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Most Likely Semifinalists

Erling Haaland (left) and Dominik Szoboszlai could battle out again. | Paul ELLIS/AFP/Getty Images

By finishing first and second in the league phase, Arsenal and Bayern Munich cannot meet until the final, ensuring that, in this predicted list of semifinalists, one tie will be an all-Premier League affair.

Should the Gunners go up against either Liverpool or Manchester City, they will undoubtedly have their Champions League inexperience thrown on top of their domestic inferiority complex. Since Arsenal reached their one and only final in Europe’s premier club competition in 2006, City and Liverpool have been to six between them. Yet, neither are expected to make it to Budapest this year.

Team	Likelihood of Reaching Semifinal
Arsenal	62.43%
Bayern Munich	48.23%
Liverpool	44.48%
Man City	38.11%

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Most Likely Finalists

Arsenal and Bayern Munich faced off in the quartefinals two seasons ago. | Alex Grimm/Getty Images

Team	Likelihood of Reaching Final	Likelihood of Winning the Final
Arsenal	46.17%	29.45%
Bayern Munich	29.25%	14.56%

After Arsenal beat Bayern Munich 3–1 in the league phase, Kompany sniffed: “I don’t think any of us want to be the best team in November.” According to Opta, the pair could decide who is the best team on the continent at the end of May.

Bayern have been to 11 European Cup and Champions League finals in their illustrious history, although as few as six of those have ended in triumph for the Bavarians. Only Juventus have lost more finals in the competition (seven) than the German showpiece regulars. Whether Arsenal can use that to their advantage, should either of them actually get there, is another matter entirely.

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