Supercomputer Predicts Champions League Winner After Thrilling Round of 16

The fight for the European crown is reaching a fever pitch.

Real Madrid eliminated Man City from the Champions League for the third consecutive season. | Alex Pantling/UEFA/Getty Images

Only eight teams remain in the fight for European glory after an action-packed Champions League round of 16 concluded on Wednesday night.

The first legs lived up to the hype, delivering 32 goals across eight games that provided storylines galore, headlined by Real Madrid’s thumping of Manchester City and Chelsea’s collapse against reigning cup holders Paris Saint-Germain. Bayern Munich also ran riot against Atalanta, while Atlético Madrid punished Tottenham Hotspur.

A handful of close ties, though, set up tantalizing second legs that all ended with a common theme: The better teams, both on paper and on the night, all advanced to the Champions League quarterfinals. Liverpool stormed back to dispatch Galatasaray, Barcelona humiliated Newcastle and Arsenal handled business against Bayer Leverkusen.

Perhaps the only unexpected outcome belonged to Sporting CP, who completed a comeback for the ages to end Bodø/Glimt’s fairytale run.

With the stage now set for the quarterfinals, here’s how the Opta supercomputer views each team’s chances of hoisting the Champions League title come May.

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Supercomputer Predicts Champions League Winner

Arsenal have yet to suffer a defeat in the Champions League this season. | Julian Finney/UEFA/Getty Images

Opta backed Bayern Munich to top the competition after their rout in the first leg, but it now favors Arsenal to claim their first-ever Champions League title after a decisive 2–0 victory over Bayer Leverkusen on Tuesday night.

The Gunners are given a 29.95% chance to finally conquer Europe’s premier club competition. Mikel Arteta’s men were perfect through the league phase and punched their tickets to the quarterfinals with relative ease despite a tricky away leg. The added benefit of coming from the easier side of the bracket has Arsenal sitting pretty.

Bayern Munich are right behind the north London outfit with a 18.02% chance of winning the Champions League. The German giants sent 10 goals past Atalanta in the round of 16 and have only lost two matches across all competitions this season.

Boosted by an incredible 7–2 victory over Newcastle in the second leg at the Camp Nou, Barcelona saw their odds of claiming their first European trophy since 2015 increase to 14.74%. Much like Arsenal, the Catalans have a much less-threatening path to Budapest, which will likely come down to a blockbuster semifinal tie with the Gunners.

Club	Chances of Winning
Arsenal	29.95%
Bayern Munich	18.02%
Barcelona	14.74%
PSG	12.15%
Real Madrid	10.18%
Liverpool	7.04%
Atlético Madrid	4.65%
Sporting CP	3.27%

PSG and Real Madrid are the only other two clubs given double-digit odds of winning the Champions League at 12.15% and 10.18% respectively. The Parisians made a mockery of Chelsea both home and away to remind the continent they are the defending cup holders for a reason, while Álvaro Arbeloa’s men eliminated City with a swagger fitting for the 15-time European champions.

Opta has less faith in Liverpool to make it out of the silver side of the bracket. Despite mauling Galatasaray 4–0 in the second leg at Anfield, the defending English champions only have a predicted 7.04% chance of salvaging their nightmare season with club soccer’s ultimate prize.

It could be worse, though—just ask Atlético Madrid. Diego Simeone’s men boast just 4.65% odds of claiming European glory, no doubt hurt by their unimpressive 3–2 defeat to Spurs in the second leg of their round of 16 tie.

Sporting CP are not much better off. Opta gives the comeback kings a 3.27% chance of being the last team standing in the competition this season. A daunting duel with Arsenal in the quarterfinals does the Portuguese outfit no favors.

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Champions League Quarterfinal Fixtures

Raphinha (left) and Lamine Yamal will lead Barcelona against Atlético Madrid. | Pablo Rodriguez/Quality Sport Images/Getty Images

Tie	Team Most Likely to Advance
Liverpool vs. PSG	PSG (56.21%)
Bayern Munich vs. Real Madrid	Bayern Munich (57.84%)
Barcelona vs. Atlético Madrid	Barcelona (63.84%)
Arsenal vs. Sporting CP	Arsenal (78.36%)

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