Toughest Run-ins: What The Numbers Say About Remaining Premier League Games

There’s plenty to play for between now and the end of the season.

Chelsea have some awkward fixtures on the horizon. | Jacques Feeney/Offside/Offside/Getty Images.

After months of blood, sweat and tears on Premier League pitches across the country, we have officially entered the final quarter of the campaign.

The stakes will rise with each passing week as crunch time approaches, the fight for glory, continental qualification and survival all to be decided on an increasingly muddy and chaotic battlefield.

Performances now pale in significance to results as supporters eye their dwindling fixture lists and plan their route to points. The schedule is more forgiving for some Premier League participants than others, though.

Courtesy of Opta’s Power Rankings, it’s now clear which clubs have the toughest run-ins.

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Every Premier League Club’s Remaining Fixtures Ranked By Difficulty

Arsenal have the advantage in the title race. | Glyn Kirk/AFP/Getty Images

Club	Mean Difficulty of Remaining Games
Wolves	88.83
Leeds	89.38
Brighton	90.13
Aston Villa	90.28
Arsenal	90.30
Tottenham	90.49
Brentford	90.64
Nott’m Forest	90.72
Sunderland	91.06
Newcastle	91.21
Man Utd	91.33
Bournemouth	91.40
Fulham	91.40
Man City	91.44
Liverpool	91.52
Burnley	91.66
Chelsea	91.70
West Ham	92.01
Crystal Palace	92.30
Everton	92.57

Chelsea fans, look away now. As per Opta, the Blues have the highest mean difficulty of remaining matches for any top-seven side—in layman’s terms, they have the most challenging fixtures of any of the main Champions League qualification contenders for the rest of the term. Fortunately for the west Londoners, they have generally coped well in tougher fixtures, taking points from meetings with Liverpool, Manchester City, both of whom Chelsea still have to play again, and Aston Villa, in a battering 4–1 win no less.

In the title fight between Arsenal and Manchester City, it‘s advantage Mikel Arteta. Having overcome Chelsea last weekend, the Gunners’ only remaining battle with any side currently inside the top seven is the trip to City in April, which will, of course, have enormous ramifications in the race for first.

City, meanwhile, have tougher tests than their title rivals, with clashes against Chelsea and Aston Villa still to come, as well as that pivotal battle with Arsenal. Away days at Everton and Bournemouth could prove awkward to navigate, too.

Aston Villa have the easiest fixtures of the teams competing for Champions League qualification, encouraging news for Unai Emery’s side after their recent downturn in form. They have the fourth simplest run-in, statistically at least, of any Premier League side.

Manchester United and Liverpool both have tricky fixtures remaining as the pursue a top-five finish—almost certainly enough to qualify for the Champions League. The Red Devils technically have the easier run but still have games against Villa, Chelsea and Liverpool to come.

Similarly, Liverpool still have to face Chelsea and Villa alongside a trip to Old Trafford, all of those games coming in the final four gameweeks of the Premier League campaign. The Reds still boast slightly simpler fixtures than Chelsea, however.

Liverpool have a difficult end to the campaign. | Simon Stacpoole/Offside/Offside/Getty Images.

Tottenham Hotspur are surprise participants in the relegation fight but the prospect of unthinkable demotion will be eased by some kind fixtures. Meetings with Chelsea and Villa remain in their final four games, with the Lilywhites desperate to be clear of the bottom three by then.

Leeds United are not out of the fight to beat the drop just yet, but only Wolverhampton Wanderers have a kinder run than the Whites during the remainder of the term. Nottingham Forest will also be boosted by an encouraging schedule.

West Ham United have a much tougher run-in, though—the third-hardest in the league, to be precise. Nuno Espírito Santo’s side are in terrific form but will have to upset the odds to escape the drop zone.

Everton are the unfortunate side with the hardest remaining opponents, throwing their European hopes into serious jeopardy. Games with Arsenal, Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool are still on the horizon for the Toffees.

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