Can USWNT Star Rose Lavelle Actually Win the Ballon d'Or?

The 2026 Ballon d’Or shortlist is in, and of the 30 women’s players nominated for the best player in the world, only one of them is American: Rose Lavelle.

It is the second time the 31-year-old midfielder has been nominated in her career. She finished eighth in voting in 2019. So, what are the chances that the U.S. women’s national team and Gotham FC star could take home soccer’s most coveted individual award this year?

Let’s dig into whether Lavelle could actually win the Ballon d’Or in London on October 26th.

How Is Lavelle Judged?

ROSE LAVELLE BRINGS THE NWSL CHAMPIONSHIP MAGIC FOR GOTHAM FC 🪄

Watch Washington Spirit vs Gotham FC in the NWSL Championship NOW on @CBS & @paramountplus 📺 pic.twitter.com/1yfTO1P6kQ
— W Golazo (@WGolazo) November 23, 2025

The Ballon d’Or window, in which to judge the performance of the world’s best players, is from Aug. 3, 2025 to July 26, 2026, aligning with the European soccer calendar. There are three main categories to be judged in the award founded by France Football: individual performance, team achievements and fair play—ranked highest to lowest in importance.

With Lavelle playing in the National Women’s Soccer League (NWSL), she is already at a disadvantage to her global counterparts. Following a spring-to-fall schedule as opposed to the European soccer calendar, she will have played fewer games than some of Europe’s top players, not to mention the time zones and broadcast platforms that add another layer of difficulty for assessment.

That said, Lavelle’s trophy cabinet can speak for itself. She still won two domestic trophies with Gotham: the 2025 NWSL Championship and the 2026 NWSL Challenge Cup. She also advanced to the semifinals of the continental competition, the Concacaf W Champions Cup, and the inaugural FIFA Women’s Champions Cup. Individually, across her time with club and country, Lavelle has made over 40 appearances and picked up 15 goals and five assists in this Ballon d’Or window.

Of course, even with two trophies in tow and two Final Four appearances, what may well get Lavelle best recognized at the Ballon d’Or is her stunning game-winner in the 2025 NWSL Championship final, lifting Gotham to a 1-0 victory over the Washington Spirit. Soccer is sometimes just about big moments.

Who Votes for the Ballon d’Or?

ballon dor stage with winners — The 70th Ballon d’Or will take place at the London Palladium on Oct. 26. | Kristy Sparow/UEFA/Getty Images

The voters who submit ballots for the Ballon d’Or are an international jury of journalists curated by France Football. For the women, this jury is made up of 50 journalists, one from each of the top 50 nations in the FIFA World Rankings.

Those journalists each submit a ballot with 10 players from the shortlist on it. The ranking of those 10 players determines how many points each will receive. If a player is at the top of a ballot, they will receive 15 points. After that, it is 12 points for second place, 10 points for third, and eight points for fourth and seven points for fifth. For sixth place to tenth place, the players are given five, four, three, two and one point respectively.

Due to the FIFA rankings, 27 of the 50 journalists are based in Europe. And just 11 would be in a time zone that could freely watch the NWSL at a decent time in North, Central, or South America and the Caribbean. Again, this puts Lavelle in a tough spot for people catching her at her best.

What Can History Tell Us?

Aitana Bonmatí receiving the Ballon d’Or. — Aitana Bonmatí joined Lionel Messi and Michel Platini as the only players to ever win three-consecutive Ballon d’Or awards. | Franck Fife/AFP/Getty Images

When you look at previous Ballon d’Or winners, it would seem that the UEFA Women’s Champions League is the biggest marker of success, as well as domination in other top European leagues like the English Women’s Super League and Spain’s Liga F.

The next most recognizable platform would be the international stage, with the FIFA Women’s World Cup, UEFA Women’s Euros, and CONMEBOL Copa América Femenina getting the most recognition. For some of the voters, the Women’s African Cup of Nations and the Women’s Asian Cup can also offer some extra notoriety. The Olympics often give a bump too, as seen in 2024, when gold medalist Americans Lindsey Heaps, Trinity Rodman, Sophia Wilson, and Mal Swanson all cracked the top 10.

The last five Ballon d’Or wins have all gone to FC Barcelona players: Aitana Bonmatí in 2023, 2024, and 2025, and Alexia Putellas in 2021 and 2022. Across those five years, Barcelona won the Champions League three times and finished as the runner-up in the other two years.

Barcelona’s dominance in European club soccer has coincided with Spain taking over the international game by winning the 2023 Women’s World Cup and making it to the final of the 2025 Women’s Euros.

The only time an American player has won the Ballon d’Or was in 2019, when Megan Rapinoe took home the prize after helping the United States win the World Cup that year. She was also named player of the tournament at the 2019 World Cup, and tied for top scorer with six goals. Lavelle scored in the World Cup final that year and finished eighth in the Ballon d’Or.

So, Can Lavelle Win in 2026?

lavelle celebrates — The short answer is no. | Elsa/NWSL/Getty Images

The short answer is: Probably not. It is highly unlikely that Lavelle could garner enough votes for her performance in the NWSL and other less prestigious competitions. Without a major international tournament, it feels impossible for an NWSL-based player to crack the top three at this moment in time. One day, that could change. But that day doesn’t feel like today.

The highest ranking for an NWSL-based player who did not have a major international tournament during the voting window is 13th, by Alex Morgan of the San Diego Wave, back in 2022. Last year, Temwa Chawinga finished 17th in the Ballon d’Or based on her performance with the Kansas City Current.

If Lavelle can get anywhere near the top 10, that would be viewed as a major achievement for the NWSL and Gotham FC as the league tries to climb up the global ladder of notoriety for performance within the U.S.

The likelihood is that Lavelle finishes somewhere in the 10 to 20 range, and behind fellow nominees Chawinga and Orlando Pride’s Barbra Banda, who have both dominated the NWSL more consistently and made more international headlines over the last year.

Expect Barcelona players and other top players from Champions League clubs to fill out the top 10. WSL top scorer Khadija Shaw, of Manchester City and Jamaica, is another exception who should also finish very high after a breathtaking title-winning season where she scored 21 goals in 22 league games. Similarly, Japanese internationals, who won the 2026 Women’s Asian Cup, should also feature more prominently than in previous years.

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